***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.7 7.7 8.0 1.9 65.6 65.0 2.9 6.3 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 7.1 8.0 8.2 2.0 67.2 65.9 2.4 4.3 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 5.6 8.0 8.3 1.7 63.3 63.3 3.1 4.8 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -1.0 0.5 4.2 0.5 53.8 53.6 -2.6 -1.7 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.8 6.7 6.1 1.3 59.8 60.4 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.4 4.6 1.2 60.5 59.2 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 6.5 7.2 8.2 2.0 67.4 66.6 1.9 3.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -0.9 -1.1 5.6 1.6 65.1 62.9 -4.5 -2.6 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.6 7.6 7.1 1.6 62.7 62.3 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 7.6 7.5 6.3 1.7 65.1 63.2 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.5 6.2 1.4 61.2 61.2 3.4 5.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.1 7.1 6.0 1.4 62.5 61.6 3.1 5.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.6 5.4 1.5 62.2 62.3 3.1 6.2 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 7.9 8.7 7.6 1.8 66.7 63.8 2.8 5.7 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.4 4.7 0.3 50.0 51.8 3.7 4.4 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.6 5.5 1.2 59.9 59.8 3.4 6.6 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 6.5 7.3 8.2 2.0 69.4 66.9 2.0 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 6.7 7.3 6.5 1.9 68.0 64.6 3.3 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 6.9 8.6 8.3 1.9 65.9 64.8 2.1 4.0 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 4.2 4.1 4.5 2.0 71.6 67.0 0.6 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 7.7 7.8 7.7 1.7 61.8 62.8 3.3 5.2 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 7.1 7.8 8.2 1.9 67.0 65.5 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 5.1 7.4 8.4 1.7 64.1 63.4 2.3 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 5.6 8.5 7.5 1.7 65.4 63.1 3.3 4.7 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 6.3 6.4 6.3 1.7 64.6 64.0 2.7 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 7.6 7.9 5.5 1.7 66.5 65.2 3.4 5.5 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 7.2 7.2 7.5 2.0 67.1 66.0 2.2 5.0 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.2 4.2 0.1 49.7 50.4 3.9 5.2 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 4.0 3.7 5.9 2.0 69.5 65.8 -0.7 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 6.9 7.5 8.1 1.9 66.2 65.2 1.8 4.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------