***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 9.7 10.3 8.7 3.3 73.5 72.3 4.3 8.1 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 8.9 10.2 8.8 3.2 73.6 72.2 3.8 6.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 10.0 10.6 9.4 3.5 73.1 72.0 5.1 7.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 1.8 2.0 4.2 1.5 58.0 58.1 -1.1 1.4 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 48 52 100 9.2 10.7 7.2 3.0 72.3 70.1 5.9 7.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 7.1 8.4 5.8 2.8 70.4 69.0 4.7 6.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 8.9 9.8 8.7 3.2 74.9 73.0 3.4 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 0.8 1.5 6.5 3.0 75.7 71.9 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 10.3 12.2 8.6 3.5 76.1 73.0 5.9 7.8 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 9.8 11.2 7.6 3.4 75.6 72.3 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 47 53 100 9.5 10.9 7.5 3.0 73.5 69.8 6.0 7.0 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 9.2 10.8 6.7 2.8 72.8 69.5 6.0 7.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 7.6 9.6 6.8 2.7 69.2 68.3 5.8 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 10.4 12.0 9.3 3.6 77.2 72.9 6.2 7.2 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 7.4 7.0 4.6 0.9 50.8 53.0 4.3 7.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 7.8 9.5 6.5 2.6 68.4 67.1 6.5 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 8.6 9.9 8.7 3.2 76.1 73.6 4.2 6.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 8.9 10.9 7.9 3.8 81.0 75.8 5.4 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 9.2 10.1 9.0 3.3 73.4 71.9 4.2 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 5.7 7.5 6.1 3.9 85.7 78.9 2.3 4.0 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 9.7 11.3 9.1 3.4 74.5 72.4 5.8 7.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 9.5 10.6 8.8 3.1 74.7 72.6 4.7 7.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 9.3 10.5 9.3 3.4 73.9 72.1 4.5 7.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 10.5 12.1 9.2 3.7 77.6 73.9 6.0 7.6 10.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 8.6 9.0 7.4 3.3 74.0 71.9 4.5 6.6 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 8.9 9.7 6.3 3.2 77.2 75.6 5.8 6.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 9.4 10.9 8.4 3.5 77.1 74.1 5.4 6.8 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 8.1 7.7 4.3 1.0 52.6 54.0 4.5 7.5 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 5.7 7.3 7.4 3.9 83.1 77.6 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 8.9 9.9 8.8 3.2 73.4 72.0 3.9 7.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------