***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 6.2 7.4 6.3 2.6 72.0 69.5 1.6 2.9 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 7.0 6.9 6.7 2.5 70.7 68.6 2.2 4.8 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 7.5 8.2 6.7 2.5 69.7 67.6 2.8 5.3 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 -0.4 -1.7 0.0 -1.0 41.6 43.7 -2.6 -1.0 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 47 53 100 6.0 6.9 4.3 1.8 65.6 63.7 3.0 4.4 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 5.4 5.8 3.2 2.1 65.5 64.3 2.5 3.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 6.8 6.7 6.7 2.6 72.5 70.7 1.9 4.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 0.2 0.2 4.3 2.4 68.0 66.9 -3.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 7.5 8.3 5.9 2.4 69.3 66.9 3.5 5.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 7.7 7.9 5.5 2.8 70.8 69.2 3.6 5.4 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 5.1 6.7 4.5 1.5 61.2 60.9 3.7 4.6 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 5.4 7.4 3.9 1.6 61.7 61.3 3.7 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 46 54 100 7.4 6.5 4.8 1.9 65.5 63.5 3.6 5.3 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 8.9 8.4 6.9 2.6 66.9 67.1 4.4 6.1 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.9 3.1 -0.9 -3.9 25.7 26.2 3.4 4.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 5.2 6.9 3.7 1.4 60.2 59.8 3.9 4.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 6.8 6.8 6.4 2.3 70.7 68.3 1.9 5.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 6.8 6.6 5.9 3.7 73.4 73.2 3.0 4.5 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.5 6.6 2.3 69.5 67.1 2.0 5.2 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 4.0 4.3 4.9 4.2 78.7 77.6 0.9 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 7.4 8.1 6.6 2.4 70.5 67.3 3.2 5.1 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 49 51 100 7.7 6.7 5.7 1.5 64.7 62.0 2.2 5.4 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 7.3 7.5 6.3 2.1 67.3 64.6 2.7 5.1 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 8.6 8.7 6.8 2.9 69.1 68.8 4.2 5.7 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 5.5 6.5 4.9 2.2 68.9 66.4 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 6.9 6.4 3.7 2.0 67.4 65.2 3.5 5.0 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 6.9 7.9 6.4 3.1 76.1 73.6 2.7 4.0 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.1 -0.2 -2.3 34.9 36.4 4.5 5.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 4.5 4.7 6.0 4.3 77.1 77.1 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 6.8 7.0 6.7 2.5 71.3 69.0 2.1 4.7 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------