***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 0.8 1.3 0.1 3.0 70.6 70.4 -2.7 -1.3 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 -1.2 0.2 -0.1 2.6 67.0 67.6 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 2.2 2.7 0.0 2.7 68.7 68.6 -1.7 0.4 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 -4.6 -4.0 -3.3 2.1 59.8 60.9 -6.6 -4.9 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 -0.3 0.3 -1.7 3.0 72.1 71.4 -3.5 -2.0 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 -1.4 -2.1 -5.0 2.2 62.9 64.5 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 -1.2 0.1 -0.1 2.5 65.7 66.9 -3.1 -1.5 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -6.0 -5.9 -3.7 3.1 73.8 72.3 -8.1 -6.9 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 1.1 1.8 -1.5 3.2 76.2 75.0 -2.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 0.5 0.8 -2.9 3.2 75.1 73.4 -3.1 -1.6 0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 0.3 0.3 -2.8 2.8 70.9 69.9 -3.3 -1.9 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 -1.0 -1.3 -3.2 2.8 69.8 68.9 -3.9 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 -1.8 -1.1 -4.1 2.0 61.8 62.7 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 0.6 0.9 -2.0 2.7 67.4 68.0 -2.5 -1.3 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 -0.8 -0.7 -3.3 1.2 52.9 54.0 -3.1 -0.9 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 -0.9 -0.5 -3.8 2.2 64.5 63.7 -3.0 -1.4 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 2.5 66.2 66.7 -3.5 -1.1 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 -1.9 -1.6 -3.3 3.1 73.5 72.1 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 49 51 100 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 2.5 66.5 66.8 -3.5 -1.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -4.3 -4.0 -4.2 3.3 71.8 73.0 -8.1 -6.2 -4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 0.3 1.0 -0.4 3.1 71.7 71.7 -3.1 -2.0 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 -1.6 -0.1 -0.3 2.3 64.2 64.6 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 -1.8 -0.1 -0.8 2.4 65.8 65.9 -3.4 -2.2 -0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 -0.4 0.3 -2.0 2.8 70.3 69.4 -3.5 -2.1 0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 -0.1 0.3 -0.7 3.3 70.6 71.8 -3.1 -1.6 0.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 -0.3 -0.8 -3.3 2.9 71.5 70.9 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 0.6 1.2 -0.1 3.3 70.8 71.3 -3.5 -0.8 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 -2.0 -1.5 -3.6 1.5 54.6 55.5 -4.4 -2.2 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 -2.2 -1.6 -3.8 3.3 74.8 73.9 -5.6 -3.7 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 0.4 0.6 0.0 2.6 67.4 68.4 -3.0 -1.7 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------