***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 42.9 111.2 62.9 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 30.1 31.0 42.6 115.2 66.5 61.5 20.0 27.4 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 40.6 51.9 44.3 113.1 66.7 59.1 26.1 34.5 50.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 49.0 60.9 50.3 117.4 66.8 60.4 34.1 45.4 60.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 46.4 48.6 48.9 112.1 62.5 58.2 34.6 42.3 49.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 37.4 37.7 48.1 104.7 57.1 55.3 27.5 33.1 47.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.8 28.2 41.5 114.0 67.4 61.1 19.7 21.4 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 73.7 79.8 54.6 114.0 62.6 59.8 50.5 69.4 82.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 37.2 41.2 49.4 111.6 63.3 58.6 23.1 33.3 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 45.8 52.0 53.1 112.0 62.2 59.1 28.9 42.3 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 36.7 41.6 46.0 108.4 58.4 55.8 27.4 33.2 47.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 41.6 44.6 47.3 111.0 60.4 57.8 29.9 36.7 45.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 44.2 49.3 48.8 108.6 57.7 57.0 29.5 39.4 55.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 49.3 61.9 54.3 114.1 66.8 58.9 31.4 43.7 61.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 45.0 46.4 48.3 122.6 69.8 61.9 18.6 26.9 34.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 37.5 37.1 47.4 109.7 57.5 57.1 23.8 33.4 44.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.5 35.1 40.9 117.6 66.9 62.6 19.8 24.6 34.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 44.2 51.4 60.6 115.6 68.6 60.8 30.4 41.3 50.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 35.6 41.2 43.7 115.1 66.9 61.1 24.3 32.5 40.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 58.8 57.2 77.3 124.2 73.7 65.0 32.9 45.8 50.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 40.0 48.4 46.5 113.0 65.7 59.4 21.4 33.8 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 37.3 37.8 43.1 117.4 69.2 62.7 21.4 27.5 35.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 32.9 37.1 46.3 114.1 68.4 60.3 22.9 31.4 35.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 50.1 53.3 52.8 113.0 66.5 58.6 36.3 44.8 53.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 44.3 47.5 50.5 113.1 64.5 59.9 23.0 40.8 48.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 36.0 41.9 52.1 115.8 69.0 61.3 29.6 33.3 39.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 35.6 40.0 46.8 110.2 63.5 59.2 20.0 28.9 43.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 33.0 36.9 48.0 116.9 66.9 59.9 23.1 27.6 35.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 80.9 86.5 67.4 119.3 71.4 62.5 51.7 65.7 83.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 30.5 33.7 42.7 113.7 66.8 60.5 17.9 25.3 32.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------