***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 11.2 134.3 66.7 58.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.2 9.1 11.6 141.7 71.4 61.6 2.3 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.0 11.7 11.6 136.2 68.6 60.1 2.8 8.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 11.3 12.2 128.0 69.6 61.4 2.4 5.3 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.5 12.1 12.3 124.6 68.3 59.9 2.5 4.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.2 12.4 11.6 107.2 62.9 55.1 2.1 5.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.7 9.6 11.2 140.1 71.0 61.1 2.1 4.3 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.8 21.9 13.3 116.8 65.9 58.9 7.8 12.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.6 10.0 12.3 122.9 66.2 57.7 2.1 4.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.4 13.3 119.4 65.6 58.4 3.7 6.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.1 12.2 11.6 117.4 66.8 58.9 2.6 7.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.8 12.7 11.5 115.9 65.0 58.3 4.3 7.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.7 14.9 11.8 114.3 66.7 56.7 2.8 5.4 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.4 14.7 14.5 134.0 72.5 59.0 2.2 8.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 15.4 10.0 10.6 125.0 71.0 60.7 0.4 3.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.6 11.5 115.1 64.1 58.1 3.4 6.4 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.8 11.5 147.2 75.8 62.6 3.0 4.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.2 15.7 15.5 124.8 67.8 59.6 1.6 5.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 6.6 11.4 11.8 140.5 71.5 61.6 2.1 5.1 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 19.9 15.1 18.9 127.5 67.1 61.1 4.8 9.1 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.6 12.8 11.8 131.7 69.1 58.7 1.9 4.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.2 14.3 12.4 147.0 77.4 63.5 1.9 5.4 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.1 9.7 12.3 137.4 71.7 60.5 2.3 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.7 14.8 13.8 130.4 70.8 59.4 3.4 6.0 13.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.9 12.2 13.0 131.9 67.2 60.1 1.6 5.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.9 12.0 115.9 62.4 57.4 3.2 9.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.2 9.6 12.2 131.2 65.8 59.0 1.3 5.2 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.0 9.5 11.0 119.3 67.1 59.5 1.8 4.0 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 22.8 17.0 127.2 68.7 60.4 6.2 12.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 7.5 8.7 11.3 138.1 68.9 60.9 1.9 5.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------