***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 14.2 154.2 75.2 66.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 10.4 12.5 14.4 157.5 74.4 67.1 0.9 2.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 15.5 19.9 14.6 149.8 76.5 65.6 2.2 4.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 17.5 21.8 15.9 155.2 79.9 67.7 6.0 10.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.7 17.5 15.8 151.2 77.8 67.2 6.2 8.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.7 10.4 14.5 124.8 70.4 62.1 4.2 6.3 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 7.9 9.4 14.1 159.8 74.3 67.4 1.2 2.7 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 23.2 25.8 17.5 158.7 77.8 69.7 12.7 18.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 14.2 14.7 15.9 148.1 75.4 66.9 3.8 7.3 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 18.5 22.1 17.2 151.2 76.8 68.0 6.5 11.4 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 13.3 16.9 14.7 148.6 75.4 66.8 3.9 6.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 14.7 16.9 14.8 152.6 75.2 68.4 5.4 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 16.3 18.8 14.7 136.8 74.5 65.0 4.4 9.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 15.7 19.0 18.2 147.0 77.1 65.5 4.4 9.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.4 17.5 14.7 153.6 79.1 67.8 1.8 6.4 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 12.8 15.0 14.3 141.4 75.9 65.8 4.6 7.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 9.2 11.3 13.6 162.6 74.7 68.2 1.1 3.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 17.7 23.7 19.5 149.4 77.6 67.7 4.0 8.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 13.7 17.3 14.6 153.3 74.6 66.3 1.6 2.9 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 15.2 21.5 24.9 169.4 82.3 71.6 4.6 7.6 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 14.3 18.9 15.1 150.8 77.3 66.4 1.9 6.1 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 11.8 14.0 13.5 151.8 73.9 65.9 1.7 4.3 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.9 15.1 15.4 149.0 76.6 65.1 2.3 4.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 15.1 19.3 17.2 144.9 77.6 65.7 3.4 7.1 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 15.2 17.2 16.8 157.7 76.3 67.9 2.0 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 11.9 13.5 15.1 145.1 71.6 66.9 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.1 11.7 15.7 155.8 74.8 67.2 2.0 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 12.6 16.8 14.6 147.7 77.7 66.7 1.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 26.9 33.0 21.5 152.6 77.6 68.5 10.2 16.3 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.2 14.5 14.4 155.5 74.8 66.1 1.5 3.1 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------