***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 106.6 65.6 54.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.5 7.0 11.8 107.5 68.8 57.8 1.5 2.8 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.2 8.5 12.5 111.2 66.4 56.0 2.6 6.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.8 16.1 14.5 116.2 63.7 56.6 3.9 8.6 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.6 14.1 113.9 63.8 55.8 3.1 9.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.7 9.5 14.2 105.9 57.0 56.0 3.5 6.7 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.1 7.6 11.5 104.8 65.1 56.9 2.2 4.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.6 19.2 16.1 114.9 63.9 57.2 7.2 14.8 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.4 9.8 14.1 113.5 63.8 56.1 2.7 6.1 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 12.7 15.3 115.1 64.2 56.6 3.8 6.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.3 13.4 110.6 60.6 55.1 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.5 14.0 111.7 63.3 56.7 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.0 14.5 111.0 60.1 57.2 3.6 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.1 16.4 15.3 118.4 66.0 58.2 6.5 11.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.1 10.3 14.6 123.0 69.1 58.0 0.6 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.5 13.8 110.4 58.6 55.9 2.6 6.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.7 11.1 11.4 111.2 67.6 59.4 2.3 6.2 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 10.7 17.6 121.6 67.1 58.5 3.0 6.9 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.4 12.7 12.2 110.5 68.9 58.2 2.9 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.1 23.1 124.7 69.1 60.4 4.3 7.7 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.2 10.9 13.2 111.9 63.4 55.7 3.4 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.2 12.2 114.4 68.3 60.6 2.6 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.6 11.2 12.9 113.4 66.4 58.0 1.7 5.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.4 15.3 15.1 117.7 65.1 57.3 4.2 8.9 15.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.7 14.3 108.0 62.7 54.7 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.1 7.3 16.0 119.1 63.9 60.3 1.6 4.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.5 8.9 13.1 104.5 64.1 54.5 4.2 6.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.2 9.8 14.1 117.4 63.0 57.0 0.5 5.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.2 18.0 20.0 126.4 67.9 59.7 7.4 13.3 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.1 9.5 11.9 106.5 67.5 56.5 2.2 4.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------