***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.4 56.0 37.5 32.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 0.9 1.3 4.8 55.5 37.9 32.4 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 0.9 1.4 5.7 58.4 35.0 33.4 1.2 2.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.4 7.1 7.7 72.9 47.2 39.6 5.8 7.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.3 6.5 6.6 60.8 42.3 34.2 5.4 7.9 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.6 7.8 77.3 52.4 42.4 2.5 6.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 1.1 2.0 4.6 53.9 38.9 33.4 1.5 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 4.4 10.2 7.7 67.4 40.3 35.0 7.6 12.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.6 2.8 7.1 63.9 38.9 36.1 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 1.8 3.6 7.3 63.1 36.7 33.8 2.7 6.1 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 2.0 4.4 6.3 59.6 36.6 32.8 3.6 6.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 1.4 3.1 6.9 66.8 42.3 35.5 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.6 7.9 72.4 50.3 39.8 3.5 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 1.5 3.2 6.4 55.3 33.1 31.4 3.2 5.0 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 0.6 2.1 8.4 89.0 56.7 44.1 0.3 1.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.3 7.8 73.6 47.1 40.6 4.5 6.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 1.0 1.8 4.3 52.4 44.0 31.5 0.8 2.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 1.7 3.6 8.0 64.2 35.9 33.9 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 0.8 0.8 5.2 57.3 37.8 32.9 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 1.4 3.4 10.3 73.1 41.1 35.9 2.5 4.8 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 1.9 3.5 6.4 61.8 40.4 35.4 3.3 4.4 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 1.1 1.9 4.9 57.0 44.2 32.9 0.5 3.1 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 0.7 0.9 5.7 57.7 35.5 33.2 0.8 2.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 2.5 3.6 6.7 58.8 33.1 32.6 3.5 6.0 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.5 2.8 6.5 58.9 36.8 34.1 2.3 7.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.3 6.4 9.0 83.4 52.4 43.2 3.3 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 1.3 1.4 5.7 54.6 35.5 32.3 0.6 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 0.9 2.6 8.2 83.3 52.4 43.8 0.9 2.0 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 3.4 5.2 8.9 67.4 37.7 34.5 4.1 10.4 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 0.9 1.2 5.1 57.0 37.6 33.7 1.1 2.9 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------