***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.1 -3.6 8.9 15.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 2.2 1.6 2.5 -3.0 17.9 21.1 3.7 5.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 3.0 1.6 2.0 -3.9 8.3 14.2 5.0 6.3 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 -3.1 -4.7 -1.3 -5.2 4.9 7.5 -1.5 0.0 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 2.9 1.8 -0.3 -4.8 3.3 8.1 4.9 5.8 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 3.2 1.0 -1.5 -4.4 2.7 7.2 3.3 5.2 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 1.9 1.4 2.5 -2.8 18.6 21.5 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 -4.1 -5.1 -0.7 -4.3 3.7 8.4 -2.6 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 3.7 1.4 0.7 -4.6 3.1 9.3 5.2 6.5 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 3.4 2.1 -0.1 -4.4 3.0 8.8 5.0 6.2 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 3.5 2.0 -0.1 -4.7 3.8 8.2 5.2 6.4 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 3.7 2.1 -0.2 -4.5 3.5 7.8 4.6 6.0 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 3.9 2.1 -0.4 -4.3 3.5 7.9 4.7 6.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 3.7 2.2 1.4 -3.9 9.6 13.7 5.0 6.9 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 1.5 0.5 -1.0 -5.1 6.0 8.4 4.4 5.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 4.1 2.2 -0.5 -4.7 3.8 7.5 5.2 6.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 2.0 1.8 2.5 -2.7 21.1 23.5 3.4 4.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 2.9 1.8 -0.4 -4.2 2.5 8.9 4.3 5.1 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 1.7 1.0 2.5 -3.2 16.0 19.8 4.2 5.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 0.2 -1.6 -2.0 -3.7 3.9 9.1 0.9 1.8 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 3.6 1.3 1.3 -4.4 4.0 10.5 5.0 6.2 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 2.3 2.0 2.6 -2.8 19.5 22.8 3.8 5.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 2.5 1.1 2.4 -3.5 13.8 17.6 4.1 5.7 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 3.7 2.2 1.0 -4.2 4.9 10.9 5.4 6.6 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 2.5 1.6 0.3 -4.0 7.4 12.0 3.8 5.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 3.9 2.0 -0.4 -4.0 3.7 7.8 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 3.3 1.3 1.5 -3.4 9.9 15.6 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 2.1 1.2 -1.1 -5.4 4.9 7.2 4.7 6.1 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 0.0 -1.1 -1.0 -3.9 3.3 9.6 0.5 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 1.8 1.1 2.4 -3.2 15.0 19.3 3.8 5.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------