***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.3 -1.0 44.7 44.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.4 5.0 6.1 -1.2 41.6 43.6 4.4 5.4 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.8 6.5 -1.2 42.3 43.5 5.5 6.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -2.0 -1.5 4.1 -1.6 36.6 40.0 -1.6 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.1 4.7 -1.5 38.8 40.8 4.5 6.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.6 4.9 3.0 -1.4 39.1 41.2 4.3 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.7 6.0 -1.2 40.8 43.7 4.1 5.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -3.8 -2.8 3.6 -1.4 38.4 40.2 -3.0 -1.8 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.9 5.5 -1.2 41.7 42.5 5.5 7.3 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 5.5 4.4 -1.4 38.7 41.1 5.1 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.3 5.7 4.7 -1.4 40.6 41.2 4.9 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.0 5.5 4.4 -1.3 39.0 40.7 5.0 7.4 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.3 6.2 3.8 -1.4 40.7 40.6 5.7 7.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.2 6.0 5.5 -1.3 39.4 42.0 5.1 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.8 4.3 4.4 -1.4 40.4 41.0 4.1 6.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.5 6.4 4.2 -1.5 39.4 40.3 5.9 7.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.4 5.8 -1.2 39.5 43.6 3.9 5.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 5.7 3.8 -1.4 37.3 40.5 5.2 6.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.1 6.3 -1.2 42.1 43.5 4.0 5.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 0.9 2.2 1.6 -1.3 39.6 39.7 1.4 3.8 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.1 6.1 -1.1 44.3 43.5 5.4 6.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.7 6.1 -1.2 40.2 43.7 4.2 5.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.6 6.4 -1.3 42.5 43.2 5.1 6.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.0 6.1 5.4 -1.3 39.0 41.9 5.6 6.7 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.6 4.8 -1.1 43.6 43.9 4.1 6.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.7 3.7 -1.3 38.9 40.6 6.0 7.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.3 5.5 -1.0 45.2 44.4 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.8 4.5 4.3 -1.6 37.3 39.4 3.9 6.7 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 1.5 1.3 2.9 -1.4 37.1 40.2 0.9 4.0 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.7 6.2 -1.2 41.9 43.6 4.1 5.7 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------