***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.0 -2.3 26.4 32.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.3 2.0 4.0 -2.2 28.2 34.5 2.4 4.3 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.0 4.2 -2.4 28.4 32.9 3.1 4.8 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -3.7 -4.1 1.6 -3.0 23.6 28.8 -2.6 -1.7 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.8 2.3 2.3 -2.9 25.0 29.1 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.2 1.5 0.7 -2.6 23.3 29.7 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.0 1.4 3.9 -2.1 28.3 34.5 1.9 3.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -5.5 -6.3 1.4 -2.8 22.3 28.5 -4.5 -2.6 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.1 2.9 3.0 -2.7 26.8 30.8 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.3 2.6 2.1 -2.8 24.4 29.6 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.4 3.0 2.3 -2.8 23.8 29.1 3.4 5.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.5 2.4 2.0 -2.8 22.8 28.3 3.1 5.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.1 2.9 1.5 -2.8 23.2 28.4 3.1 6.2 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.4 2.7 3.4 -2.5 28.0 32.5 2.8 5.7 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.3 3.1 1.8 -2.7 24.3 29.8 3.7 4.4 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 3.4 2.8 1.8 -2.9 22.6 28.6 3.4 6.6 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.2 1.6 3.8 -2.0 29.3 35.4 2.0 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 2.8 2.5 1.6 -2.7 24.9 29.5 3.3 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.0 2.0 4.2 -2.2 29.3 34.3 2.1 4.0 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -1.0 -2.1 -0.4 -2.6 21.5 28.6 0.6 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.9 3.0 3.7 -2.6 28.2 32.0 3.3 5.2 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.7 2.4 4.1 -2.1 31.1 35.4 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.4 2.1 4.3 -2.3 30.7 34.0 2.3 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.7 2.8 3.1 -2.6 28.1 31.4 3.3 4.7 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.5 2.1 2.4 -2.5 24.5 31.7 2.7 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.7 2.2 1.4 -2.7 21.1 27.5 3.4 5.5 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.9 2.0 3.2 -2.3 26.2 32.6 2.2 5.0 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.7 3.3 1.7 -3.0 23.4 28.7 3.9 5.2 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -1.4 -1.4 0.8 -2.7 23.5 29.2 -0.7 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.2 1.4 4.1 -2.2 28.0 33.9 1.8 4.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------