***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.2 -3.1 21.8 26.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 3.3 2.8 2.5 -2.6 24.6 31.0 3.8 6.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 3.8 3.3 2.4 -3.3 22.6 26.6 5.1 7.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 -2.7 -2.6 -0.3 -4.1 21.3 22.4 -1.1 1.4 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 3.5 3.5 0.4 -4.0 20.7 22.8 5.9 7.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 4.1 3.0 -0.6 -3.3 20.0 24.2 4.7 6.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.8 2.7 2.5 -2.5 25.5 31.1 3.4 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -2.8 -3.1 0.1 -3.4 21.3 23.4 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 4.2 3.9 1.2 -3.8 21.9 23.6 5.9 7.8 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 3.6 3.3 0.6 -3.6 21.7 23.8 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.6 4.1 0.6 -3.8 21.0 23.0 6.0 7.0 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 4.3 3.9 0.6 -3.6 20.4 22.8 6.0 7.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 4.6 4.9 0.2 -3.5 19.1 22.9 5.8 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.3 4.5 2.0 -3.1 23.9 28.0 6.2 7.2 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 2.1 1.2 -0.3 -4.0 21.4 22.5 4.3 7.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 4.7 4.8 0.2 -3.8 19.6 23.0 6.5 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.0 2.4 -2.2 26.2 33.2 4.2 6.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 2.8 3.3 0.4 -3.3 22.5 24.7 5.4 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.2 3.5 2.6 -2.8 24.1 30.2 4.2 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 -0.1 0.3 -1.2 -2.9 22.4 24.7 2.3 4.0 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 4.0 3.7 1.7 -3.7 21.7 24.3 5.8 7.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.4 2.6 -2.4 24.6 32.8 4.7 7.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.7 3.9 2.6 -3.0 23.8 29.2 4.5 7.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 4.3 3.8 1.6 -3.3 22.7 25.8 6.0 7.6 10.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 2.5 3.3 0.6 -3.4 21.9 24.7 4.5 6.6 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 4.2 4.1 0.2 -3.4 18.4 21.7 5.8 6.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 3.8 4.1 1.5 -3.0 21.8 26.4 5.4 6.8 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 2.3 2.7 -0.3 -4.2 21.0 22.1 4.5 7.5 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 0.5 0.5 -0.2 -3.0 23.5 25.4 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.3 2.7 2.5 -2.8 24.0 29.4 3.9 7.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------