***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -3.2 -1.8 29.1 36.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 -4.7 -4.6 -3.3 -1.6 33.1 38.6 -4.6 -2.6 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 -2.9 -2.8 -3.5 -1.9 29.9 35.8 -2.7 -0.7 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -9.0 -9.4 -5.7 -2.2 27.6 30.5 -9.2 -5.9 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 -5.5 -5.1 -5.5 -2.2 27.9 30.9 -4.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 -6.1 -5.7 -6.9 -1.6 30.1 34.2 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 -4.2 -4.6 -3.2 -1.5 32.2 39.1 -4.6 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -11.9 -12.5 -6.3 -1.9 29.6 33.7 -12.3 -8.5 -8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 -4.8 -4.3 -5.0 -2.2 27.7 32.3 -3.9 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 -4.6 -4.0 -5.8 -1.9 31.0 34.5 -3.7 -2.3 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 -4.9 -4.1 -5.7 -2.3 28.3 30.2 -3.6 -2.0 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 -5.8 -6.1 -5.9 -2.2 28.0 30.3 -5.6 -3.1 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 -4.8 -4.1 -6.2 -2.0 30.2 31.8 -3.9 -2.6 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 -4.1 -3.7 -4.6 -1.8 30.8 35.9 -3.5 -2.2 -0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 -4.3 -3.4 -5.6 -2.3 25.8 30.0 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 -3.8 -4.7 -6.1 -2.2 27.6 30.3 -3.3 -1.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 -4.5 -4.3 -3.3 -1.5 32.1 39.4 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 -6.4 -5.3 -6.0 -1.4 32.4 38.3 -5.3 -4.1 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 -4.7 -4.5 -3.4 -1.7 32.5 37.9 -4.5 -3.1 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -9.8 -10.0 -7.1 -0.9 35.5 42.8 -10.2 -7.7 -5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 -5.2 -4.6 -4.1 -2.1 27.2 33.5 -4.2 -3.0 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 -4.6 -4.4 -3.2 -1.5 32.0 38.9 -4.3 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 -4.9 -4.1 -3.6 -1.8 31.9 36.8 -4.1 -3.6 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 -5.4 -4.1 -4.9 -1.8 30.7 35.5 -3.9 -3.5 -1.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 -5.0 -4.8 -4.9 -1.9 29.4 34.4 -3.9 -2.7 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 -5.0 -4.7 -5.8 -1.8 26.8 32.5 -4.2 -2.7 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 -4.6 -4.5 -4.0 -1.7 30.3 36.6 -4.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 -5.5 -6.1 -5.7 -2.3 26.2 29.4 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -7.7 -8.7 -6.4 -1.1 34.4 40.5 -8.7 -5.3 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 -4.6 -4.4 -3.2 -1.6 31.8 38.1 -4.3 -2.4 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------