***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -5.5 -3.5 18.6 22.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 -4.5 -4.5 -4.8 -2.4 21.9 28.9 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 -3.0 -3.2 -5.8 -3.6 18.6 21.9 -1.7 0.4 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 -8.7 -9.4 -8.2 -4.1 18.6 20.2 -6.6 -4.9 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 -4.8 -5.0 -8.0 -4.2 18.8 19.8 -3.5 -2.0 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 -5.1 -5.9 -8.5 -2.8 20.2 27.7 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 -4.5 -4.0 -4.6 -2.3 23.1 29.8 -3.1 -1.5 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -9.4 -9.5 -8.2 -3.5 20.3 25.0 -8.1 -6.9 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 -4.0 -4.2 -7.6 -4.4 17.6 19.0 -2.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 -3.8 -4.2 -8.0 -3.7 20.0 23.4 -3.1 -1.6 0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 -4.4 -4.9 -8.0 -4.0 18.6 20.5 -3.3 -1.9 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 -5.5 -6.0 -7.8 -3.9 17.6 22.1 -3.9 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 -4.5 -5.0 -8.0 -3.6 18.1 24.0 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 -2.9 -3.4 -6.5 -3.1 21.6 24.8 -2.5 -1.3 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 -3.7 -5.0 -8.3 -4.4 13.9 19.2 -3.1 -0.9 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 -3.8 -4.2 -8.1 -3.9 18.9 21.9 -3.0 -1.4 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 -4.0 -4.6 -4.6 -2.1 23.7 31.0 -3.5 -1.1 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 -5.5 -5.6 -8.0 -3.1 22.3 27.3 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 -4.3 -4.4 -5.0 -2.7 21.0 27.4 -3.5 -1.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 -8.5 -8.8 -8.6 -2.3 26.3 33.2 -8.1 -6.2 -4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 -4.3 -4.6 -6.8 -4.4 16.8 19.2 -3.1 -2.0 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 -4.3 -4.7 -4.6 -2.3 23.7 30.3 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 -4.2 -4.3 -5.4 -3.0 20.6 25.3 -3.4 -2.2 -0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 -3.9 -4.2 -7.0 -3.6 19.1 23.1 -3.5 -2.1 0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -7.4 -3.9 18.5 21.0 -3.1 -1.6 0.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 -4.2 -4.6 -7.3 -3.3 19.7 25.3 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 -5.0 -6.0 -6.2 -3.4 18.7 23.5 -3.5 -0.8 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 -5.2 -6.0 -8.1 -4.2 16.5 19.9 -4.4 -2.2 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 -5.9 -6.2 -8.1 -2.6 25.0 30.8 -5.6 -3.7 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 -4.6 -4.3 -4.9 -2.7 21.4 27.3 -3.0 -1.7 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------