***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -11.1 -7.5 2.1 2.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 -8.2 -9.3 -8.9 -5.1 10.3 13.0 -4.6 -3.1 -1.2 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 -4.2 -9.8 -13.0 -9.1 1.1 1.7 -2.5 -1.0 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -10.3 -15.3 -17.7 -12.2 0.0 0.0 -8.8 -7.1 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 -6.6 -15.0 -18.0 -13.1 0.0 0.0 -4.9 -3.3 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 -8.1 -16.7 -17.8 -10.8 0.0 0.3 -6.7 -4.3 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 -6.6 -8.6 -8.4 -4.6 13.6 15.8 -4.5 -2.7 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -12.1 -18.9 -17.7 -11.2 0.0 0.7 -10.1 -8.1 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 -5.3 -12.6 -17.9 -13.3 0.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 -5.4 -12.3 -17.9 -11.9 0.0 0.4 -4.6 -3.3 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 -6.3 -11.7 -18.3 -13.1 0.0 0.1 -5.2 -3.3 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 -7.2 -12.5 -18.0 -12.6 0.0 0.3 -6.0 -4.2 -3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 -7.3 -13.4 -18.0 -12.5 0.0 0.2 -5.3 -3.2 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 -4.4 -11.6 -14.0 -9.0 0.7 1.6 -3.6 -1.4 -0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 -5.9 -13.0 -17.8 -13.2 0.0 0.0 -3.5 -2.8 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 -5.3 -10.8 -18.7 -13.4 0.0 0.1 -4.5 -2.8 -1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 -7.0 -7.6 -8.7 -4.8 14.3 16.1 -4.7 -2.8 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 -8.3 -14.8 -17.7 -10.5 0.0 1.0 -5.7 -4.9 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 -7.2 -11.5 -9.4 -5.6 7.6 10.1 -4.2 -2.4 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 -11.4 -21.5 -16.9 -8.5 0.0 2.2 -10.3 -9.6 -7.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 -6.1 -12.5 -16.2 -12.4 0.0 0.1 -4.0 -2.9 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 -7.1 -7.9 -8.6 -4.8 13.8 14.9 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 99 1 0 100 -6.1 -11.3 -10.3 -6.3 4.6 6.2 -4.1 -2.8 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 -5.3 -13.8 -16.3 -10.9 0.0 0.4 -4.4 -2.8 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 -6.6 -12.8 -14.4 -9.9 0.0 0.5 -4.6 -3.6 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 -6.3 -14.9 -16.5 -11.0 0.0 0.8 -5.3 -3.7 -2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 99 1 0 100 -6.4 -14.1 -11.4 -7.4 2.6 3.9 -4.4 -3.7 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 -7.8 -12.2 -18.1 -13.1 0.0 0.0 -5.4 -3.9 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 -8.8 -15.7 -17.0 -9.3 0.0 1.5 -7.4 -6.0 -4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 97 3 0 100 -6.4 -12.7 -9.3 -5.5 7.3 10.0 -4.3 -2.9 -0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------