***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 30.9 35.2 46.6 111.5 62.2 56.3 14.5 25.2 38.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 27.2 30.7 40.1 110.6 61.8 56.0 20.5 25.0 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 40.1 45.1 46.7 112.6 61.9 56.9 26.8 35.1 45.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 49.2 50.3 56.5 116.5 62.4 60.1 34.0 45.7 52.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 46.7 47.3 53.7 111.5 61.3 57.8 34.8 42.4 48.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 41.1 44.5 53.6 112.8 61.2 58.6 29.3 36.8 50.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 24.7 25.4 39.0 110.0 61.4 55.6 20.8 22.8 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 82.4 77.6 62.7 119.9 67.7 63.7 51.7 68.3 77.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 34.8 35.0 53.4 110.5 61.3 57.3 23.8 31.5 39.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 42.7 48.1 60.0 115.3 64.0 60.8 30.4 38.3 49.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 37.2 43.2 54.7 116.3 63.3 60.9 26.7 33.7 44.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 52.1 45.9 56.3 119.4 66.4 62.9 29.9 37.4 45.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 45.1 44.3 56.1 110.7 59.4 57.7 31.9 40.5 57.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 46.6 53.5 60.7 113.7 62.6 57.5 33.6 41.5 54.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 44.2 35.2 57.6 129.9 69.6 64.9 17.7 24.6 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 38.1 39.2 53.9 113.1 60.1 58.7 27.0 34.7 45.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.5 37.8 108.3 60.1 55.5 22.6 25.8 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 40.7 51.3 63.9 115.5 64.1 60.7 29.0 36.7 51.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 34.2 36.8 42.4 112.3 62.6 56.5 23.3 31.5 37.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 47.7 51.4 81.9 119.9 67.9 63.5 32.8 43.4 50.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 39.8 36.5 49.7 108.4 59.1 55.2 24.3 32.7 40.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 30.8 33.6 41.3 111.5 61.0 56.7 20.9 27.3 34.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 33.0 34.4 47.0 114.5 63.9 57.3 22.2 31.6 34.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 47.7 51.9 56.9 113.5 62.1 58.3 32.2 43.6 53.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 40.9 42.2 52.9 108.2 59.6 54.9 26.4 38.0 46.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 42.1 39.2 56.2 115.4 66.5 61.1 29.6 35.1 39.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 33.3 35.4 49.0 110.1 61.5 55.6 20.1 27.5 43.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 33.5 34.6 55.4 122.2 65.5 62.5 23.7 28.1 34.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 69.4 77.3 69.9 117.5 66.3 62.0 52.3 63.4 76.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 30.0 31.2 41.9 111.9 62.8 56.6 16.5 25.1 31.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------