***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.3 9.5 12.3 111.7 65.7 51.2 3.4 5.2 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.6 10.4 108.9 63.3 51.4 1.0 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.1 9.8 12.2 110.9 65.8 52.0 2.9 6.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.6 15.3 123.7 68.9 58.4 3.4 5.9 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 8.3 7.8 14.0 113.3 66.4 56.9 3.8 6.1 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.1 14.0 114.5 64.1 56.2 2.0 8.8 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.4 7.7 10.4 110.4 64.2 52.4 1.9 3.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.1 20.5 15.7 117.9 66.2 57.2 8.6 12.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.4 14.5 112.0 66.0 55.6 2.7 4.9 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.1 10.8 15.9 115.1 65.7 56.5 3.6 4.8 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.5 11.8 13.8 114.9 64.4 56.9 2.4 3.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 7.5 10.0 13.9 116.4 64.7 57.2 2.1 5.2 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.5 13.4 13.9 110.4 61.8 55.4 3.1 7.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.8 15.4 108.5 65.6 52.4 2.2 6.5 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.3 7.6 17.0 144.8 74.4 59.7 0.6 2.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.5 8.9 13.3 110.8 61.6 56.0 3.0 6.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.6 7.0 9.8 107.0 61.9 53.3 1.1 3.8 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.9 16.8 114.2 65.0 55.9 2.9 5.5 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.3 11.0 109.2 63.9 51.1 1.4 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 15.4 20.2 116.1 66.6 55.5 4.3 9.7 15.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.6 8.0 13.0 108.4 63.0 53.4 2.0 4.9 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.6 7.5 10.4 105.3 61.7 51.4 0.9 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.8 7.5 12.1 109.4 65.7 51.5 2.2 3.5 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.8 10.0 14.8 110.4 65.1 54.0 3.6 5.4 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.7 9.6 14.0 111.2 63.4 53.1 2.5 5.9 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.7 11.0 13.8 116.0 66.2 55.9 3.3 8.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.7 12.9 110.3 63.7 51.3 1.7 4.0 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.3 10.2 15.3 128.9 69.9 58.9 1.4 3.1 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.4 19.3 17.8 114.5 66.9 55.7 6.4 13.1 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.8 11.0 108.9 63.9 50.4 1.3 4.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------