***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.1 2.8 7.2 67.1 43.8 37.2 2.0 4.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.5 3.1 6.1 66.0 46.8 37.8 1.0 4.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.4 5.8 8.2 75.3 50.6 40.4 1.7 5.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.0 12.5 10.8 93.8 57.5 45.7 6.1 10.9 16.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.0 13.5 10.4 86.8 53.0 43.4 6.6 11.0 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.5 10.4 92.1 53.6 47.2 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 1.2 1.9 5.4 59.9 44.0 36.2 0.9 3.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 12.1 19.8 11.4 88.0 54.0 44.9 12.6 18.5 23.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.2 10.7 81.7 52.3 42.1 4.2 8.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.2 12.8 11.6 85.1 53.1 43.8 6.6 11.5 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.6 10.2 10.5 90.7 55.5 45.2 4.0 9.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.0 12.5 10.2 89.5 55.0 45.7 6.5 10.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.4 11.0 9.8 81.5 51.9 44.2 4.3 10.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.9 11.4 11.5 81.4 50.8 42.1 4.0 11.4 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.5 11.9 111.2 66.5 49.9 1.6 6.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.1 9.9 88.5 54.5 45.2 3.8 8.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.5 2.7 5.4 60.8 44.7 36.7 1.3 4.0 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.4 10.8 12.1 82.4 50.5 42.6 4.3 10.3 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.4 6.9 71.0 49.0 39.4 1.8 6.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.0 6.1 13.7 77.6 46.7 41.4 5.1 6.6 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.4 9.2 76.1 50.3 40.3 3.3 8.3 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.3 6.4 68.1 48.8 39.1 1.8 5.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.4 8.3 77.0 52.0 41.2 2.4 5.5 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.8 10.2 11.0 82.3 51.6 42.5 5.3 9.5 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.5 4.3 8.4 68.6 45.6 37.5 1.7 6.2 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.0 9.9 88.3 52.9 45.6 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.1 3.3 7.2 63.6 41.0 36.2 1.8 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.4 11.4 11.3 105.4 62.7 48.8 2.9 7.9 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 11.2 15.9 12.5 79.8 48.3 41.6 10.8 16.6 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.6 6.5 67.4 47.3 38.1 1.5 3.8 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------