***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.2 8.9 13.7 136.1 73.6 57.9 0.9 4.6 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.5 7.1 10.8 121.7 70.3 53.5 1.6 3.8 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.2 14.0 14.0 144.9 78.5 60.9 2.0 6.4 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 10.8 22.1 18.8 169.1 79.6 66.5 3.9 8.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 14.2 17.5 16.7 153.1 76.5 64.6 3.0 9.9 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.4 10.6 16.2 144.2 73.6 64.8 3.2 7.5 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.7 8.4 10.5 120.8 69.9 53.3 2.8 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 19.4 25.1 18.6 157.4 78.7 66.7 6.1 10.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.8 10.9 16.3 145.6 75.4 63.6 3.1 5.7 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 11.3 14.3 17.6 154.2 77.3 66.2 4.1 6.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 11.1 13.3 17.5 158.1 77.5 66.6 4.7 7.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 10.2 13.7 17.6 158.6 78.3 66.1 2.3 5.2 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 11.6 12.8 17.9 150.9 75.4 65.3 4.2 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.9 18.0 17.6 142.0 76.0 62.0 6.5 10.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.8 16.0 19.2 185.9 80.0 67.7 1.6 6.3 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 10.3 11.8 16.9 151.0 75.8 64.6 3.2 7.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.7 10.0 113.8 65.4 51.6 3.3 6.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 12.9 15.5 18.3 147.8 76.4 65.4 2.9 6.6 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.7 12.6 11.7 127.8 72.3 55.5 2.7 6.6 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 11.2 12.6 22.6 146.0 75.6 65.1 3.4 5.3 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.1 15.4 142.8 76.3 61.0 3.4 8.1 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.9 10.4 11.1 121.2 67.0 53.2 3.4 5.9 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.9 12.7 13.2 134.7 74.6 57.8 0.9 5.8 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 15.1 19.1 17.1 148.7 77.1 63.9 4.2 8.0 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.3 13.6 16.1 142.0 73.9 60.3 3.9 6.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 9.7 12.9 18.2 156.3 78.8 65.3 1.0 4.9 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.4 13.9 14.5 137.2 73.6 58.4 2.8 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.4 14.4 18.3 172.7 78.8 67.0 1.2 4.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 20.7 25.2 20.2 149.5 77.2 66.2 5.7 12.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.2 10.0 11.6 129.1 73.8 55.6 2.1 4.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------