***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.1 13.4 134.2 71.9 63.9 0.4 1.7 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 4.9 5.7 12.6 150.2 76.7 67.5 1.1 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.6 12.3 124.1 68.6 60.9 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 8.9 8.7 11.6 85.7 54.6 50.6 5.0 7.4 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.9 12.6 98.2 55.2 52.4 5.1 9.8 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.1 8.3 12.9 102.0 59.4 55.6 2.5 5.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 7.1 9.1 12.6 153.3 77.5 68.1 1.4 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.0 17.8 17.0 119.9 66.8 59.8 6.3 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.1 11.9 107.4 60.4 55.6 3.9 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.7 15.0 113.3 62.0 56.5 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.3 9.3 12.9 104.1 60.0 55.2 2.6 5.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 7.4 6.8 14.6 114.8 66.3 59.6 1.4 4.4 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.3 9.0 14.5 102.4 59.3 54.8 2.5 7.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.6 16.2 127.9 66.6 61.5 4.0 5.3 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 3.1 3.1 9.5 82.2 57.9 54.2 0.5 1.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.6 13.6 103.8 60.5 55.7 1.0 7.1 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 6.6 7.3 12.5 156.8 76.4 68.3 1.0 2.4 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.1 16.7 123.1 64.2 59.3 3.8 6.3 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 5.3 7.1 12.8 145.4 75.3 66.3 0.6 2.5 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.7 10.7 25.4 145.3 73.7 66.4 2.9 6.4 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.0 11.9 109.9 63.7 57.1 3.7 5.2 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.1 6.3 13.4 156.3 77.0 68.1 0.6 2.5 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 5.5 7.2 13.5 141.8 74.1 64.9 0.9 2.2 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.2 12.4 14.0 118.0 64.5 58.6 3.8 7.4 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.7 14.5 113.5 62.5 57.5 1.4 6.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.2 8.0 14.2 102.4 60.9 57.7 2.9 5.6 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 7.7 7.3 14.3 132.3 71.2 63.3 2.0 3.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.3 4.7 10.5 86.1 56.4 52.4 0.5 3.9 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 16.7 19.4 132.5 69.5 62.2 6.9 12.0 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.2 12.8 146.6 75.8 66.6 1.0 2.7 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------