***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 4.5 5.3 6.2 -0.8 39.8 43.2 4.4 7.1 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.3 6.3 -0.8 39.8 44.3 3.8 5.1 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.9 5.4 6.6 -0.9 38.7 43.1 4.6 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -2.9 -1.2 3.1 -1.3 35.2 39.8 -1.6 0.2 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.0 4.8 4.4 -1.2 36.3 40.7 4.4 6.5 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.2 4.7 3.2 -0.9 40.1 41.9 4.1 6.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.4 3.8 6.4 -0.7 39.9 44.6 3.5 5.0 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -4.5 -3.2 3.6 -1.0 37.0 40.7 -3.6 -1.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.0 5.5 5.1 -1.2 36.5 41.0 5.1 6.5 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.6 5.3 4.2 -1.1 37.4 40.9 4.8 7.0 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 4.2 5.5 4.3 -1.2 37.0 40.6 5.2 6.6 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.0 5.5 4.3 -1.0 37.6 41.1 4.7 7.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.1 6.3 4.0 -0.7 42.1 43.0 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.4 6.3 5.5 -1.1 40.5 41.6 4.8 7.4 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.3 4.2 3.7 -1.3 35.2 40.1 4.0 6.1 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 4.2 6.3 4.0 -1.0 38.4 41.4 6.1 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.1 6.4 -0.7 40.0 44.2 3.1 5.1 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 5.5 4.4 -1.0 40.5 41.8 4.5 6.1 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.2 3.7 6.5 -0.8 39.8 44.1 3.0 5.8 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 0.7 2.8 2.4 -0.7 40.2 42.4 1.5 3.9 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.0 5.9 5.8 -1.0 37.6 41.8 5.0 6.4 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.0 6.4 -0.9 39.2 43.2 3.4 5.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.6 4.7 6.7 -0.8 40.4 43.6 3.9 6.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.3 6.1 5.5 -1.0 40.3 41.9 4.6 6.8 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.8 3.7 4.4 -0.9 38.2 42.1 3.5 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.9 6.7 4.1 -0.4 41.5 44.1 5.8 6.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.0 5.3 5.6 -0.8 40.3 43.3 4.7 6.3 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.0 4.5 3.3 -1.4 34.9 39.3 4.4 6.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.3 3.8 -0.9 40.2 42.3 0.8 4.0 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.3 4.0 6.3 -0.8 39.1 44.2 3.5 5.2 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------