***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 2.6 5.3 -0.9 35.7 41.5 2.4 5.0 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.3 2.5 5.4 -1.0 36.2 41.1 2.4 3.7 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.9 2.7 5.4 -1.3 35.9 39.4 2.7 4.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -2.5 2.2 -1.4 37.7 39.6 -3.4 -0.5 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.0 2.6 3.3 -1.5 35.0 38.3 2.5 4.8 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.6 2.9 2.2 -1.4 37.8 39.0 2.3 5.0 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.1 2.4 5.6 -0.8 35.7 42.2 2.1 3.5 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -4.8 -4.7 2.7 -1.5 33.9 37.7 -4.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.8 2.6 3.9 -1.7 33.7 37.4 2.6 4.8 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.3 2.9 3.2 -1.7 33.3 37.1 2.8 4.8 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.3 3.3 3.2 -1.6 34.4 37.6 3.2 5.0 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.2 3.3 3.2 -1.4 34.6 38.5 2.9 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.0 4.0 3.0 -1.0 39.3 41.1 3.3 6.0 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 2.6 3.1 4.2 -1.9 30.6 36.1 3.2 4.4 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.6 2.9 -1.3 37.9 40.6 3.5 4.4 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.0 3.7 3.0 -1.4 36.2 39.0 3.3 6.4 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.7 2.5 5.5 -0.9 34.6 41.2 2.5 3.0 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.8 2.7 3.3 -1.6 31.5 37.7 2.7 4.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.1 2.2 5.4 -1.1 35.3 40.1 2.1 3.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -0.6 0.1 1.8 -1.0 33.7 40.5 0.1 2.3 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.9 2.7 4.7 -1.4 34.7 38.7 2.7 4.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.5 2.5 5.4 -1.2 33.3 39.2 2.5 4.0 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.1 2.5 5.4 -1.4 33.8 38.7 2.5 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 2.9 2.9 4.2 -1.7 31.8 37.0 3.0 4.6 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.7 2.5 3.6 -1.0 37.6 41.2 2.5 4.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.3 3.2 -0.6 41.6 44.1 3.3 5.2 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.9 2.8 4.8 -0.8 36.7 42.1 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.7 3.8 2.4 -1.5 36.4 38.7 3.7 4.3 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -1.0 -0.9 2.9 -1.3 33.1 39.3 -0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.1 2.2 5.4 -0.9 36.5 41.3 2.0 3.6 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------