***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.2 4.5 -0.2 47.8 47.3 3.5 7.4 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.4 5.6 4.6 -0.5 44.4 45.5 4.1 6.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.9 4.6 -0.7 43.5 44.4 4.7 7.6 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.2 0.8 1.3 -0.7 44.4 44.7 -0.1 0.8 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.6 6.6 2.7 -0.9 42.8 43.6 5.3 7.9 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.3 5.5 1.5 -0.8 42.1 43.8 5.0 6.4 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.3 5.5 4.6 -0.3 47.0 46.7 2.8 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -2.1 -2.2 1.3 -1.6 36.4 38.9 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.2 3.5 -1.0 42.4 43.2 5.9 8.1 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.8 6.5 2.1 -1.6 37.5 39.4 5.8 7.9 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.7 6.2 2.7 -1.1 42.6 42.2 5.5 7.8 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.8 2.1 -1.3 39.0 41.1 5.7 7.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.3 6.5 2.6 -0.7 43.9 44.5 5.0 7.3 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 4.8 6.2 3.2 -1.9 34.8 38.4 6.1 7.9 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.9 7.5 3.2 0.1 52.5 50.4 4.7 7.2 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.4 2.4 -0.8 43.0 43.8 5.6 7.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.6 5.3 4.4 -0.6 44.1 45.1 4.3 5.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.0 5.2 1.7 -1.9 34.8 38.3 5.0 6.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.0 6.4 4.6 -0.6 43.3 44.8 3.8 7.0 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.2 0.2 -1.7 33.9 39.1 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.1 4.2 -0.8 43.1 44.2 5.2 7.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.8 5.9 4.4 -0.8 41.7 43.4 4.6 6.8 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.8 5.9 4.6 -0.8 42.0 44.0 5.0 7.2 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.1 6.3 3.3 -1.6 36.7 39.4 6.2 8.1 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.7 6.2 3.2 -0.4 47.8 46.6 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.9 6.7 2.2 -0.3 45.5 47.7 4.8 7.3 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.2 4.1 -0.2 48.2 47.4 4.6 7.4 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.7 2.1 -0.6 45.2 45.3 4.9 8.0 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 0.9 2.1 1.2 -1.8 34.5 38.4 2.0 3.6 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.9 5.7 4.6 -0.4 45.3 46.1 3.8 6.9 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------