***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 7.5 8.8 8.8 5.4 84.5 84.6 1.8 2.4 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 8.1 8.5 8.8 4.8 80.0 81.0 1.8 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 8.6 9.4 9.5 5.5 82.8 82.9 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 2.1 3.6 6.3 5.8 85.7 84.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 7.7 9.0 7.7 5.6 85.6 84.0 3.3 3.6 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 6.6 8.2 5.6 4.7 85.8 82.1 2.0 3.8 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 7.5 8.1 8.5 4.6 80.3 81.4 1.4 4.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 0.4 0.9 6.3 4.8 82.3 80.2 -3.1 -1.9 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 8.7 10.1 9.1 5.9 86.3 85.3 3.5 4.6 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 8.0 9.7 7.5 5.3 82.7 80.8 3.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 8.2 9.7 8.4 5.8 85.5 84.3 3.2 4.0 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 8.1 10.0 7.1 5.1 85.3 83.2 3.3 4.7 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 8.1 9.5 7.7 5.2 86.6 83.5 3.2 4.1 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 9.7 9.9 9.3 5.4 78.3 79.7 3.8 5.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 7.4 10.5 8.7 6.3 89.2 87.7 3.0 4.0 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 8.5 9.7 7.4 5.5 86.9 84.1 3.4 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 7.5 7.5 8.3 4.4 77.6 79.5 1.4 4.2 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 6.8 7.4 7.0 5.1 79.5 78.8 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 8.7 9.4 9.0 5.0 80.9 81.6 2.2 4.2 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 3.1 3.3 4.8 4.3 76.2 76.0 0.3 2.1 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 8.5 9.3 9.6 5.7 85.2 84.1 3.3 4.1 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 8.9 9.1 8.6 4.4 78.0 79.0 2.2 4.6 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 8.4 9.5 9.4 5.4 82.6 82.9 2.3 4.0 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 9.0 9.4 9.1 5.5 80.2 80.7 3.7 5.7 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 7.3 8.2 8.1 5.6 86.0 84.6 2.2 2.8 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 7.5 8.6 6.0 4.7 88.3 84.1 3.1 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 7.7 8.5 8.3 5.2 84.5 84.0 2.2 3.9 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 8.6 9.8 7.4 5.8 86.4 84.2 3.1 5.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 4.1 4.8 6.4 5.0 79.1 78.9 0.7 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 7.6 8.5 8.8 5.0 82.5 82.5 1.7 3.8 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------