***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 0.3 1.6 1.8 5.8 94.3 91.6 -4.8 -2.7 -0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.4 1.2 1.9 5.5 92.8 91.5 -5.8 -3.1 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 2.3 3.5 2.0 5.7 93.7 91.3 -2.4 -1.1 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -3.9 -2.7 -0.2 6.0 90.7 90.9 -8.5 -6.0 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -1.2 0.9 0.2 5.6 90.2 88.6 -4.8 -3.0 -1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -2.0 0.6 -2.5 5.4 94.9 91.9 -6.9 -4.6 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.5 1.4 2.0 5.6 92.9 91.6 -5.1 -2.8 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 -5.9 -4.9 -2.5 5.2 88.3 86.2 -9.9 -8.2 -6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.2 -0.1 5.7 92.3 89.8 -4.1 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 -1.0 0.8 -1.8 5.3 88.3 86.5 -4.6 -3.0 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 -1.0 1.3 -0.7 5.4 89.9 87.5 -4.7 -2.9 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 -2.1 0.5 -1.4 5.4 88.8 87.1 -5.5 -3.5 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -0.9 0.9 -1.2 5.4 89.8 89.4 -4.9 -3.4 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 1.1 1.5 -0.1 5.8 91.0 89.8 -4.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.9 1.6 1.0 6.0 95.4 94.5 -3.6 -2.6 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 -0.4 1.9 -1.1 5.5 89.8 88.9 -4.2 -2.4 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.3 1.1 2.0 5.5 92.3 90.6 -5.4 -3.0 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 -2.3 -1.6 -1.8 5.5 89.4 87.4 -5.7 -4.0 -3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.5 1.2 1.7 5.5 93.5 91.6 -5.2 -2.6 0.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 -5.5 -3.1 -3.0 5.3 87.4 85.6 -10.0 -9.5 -7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 -0.5 1.7 1.4 5.9 92.9 90.7 -4.4 -2.6 -0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.1 1.1 1.8 5.3 90.7 89.6 -4.8 -2.5 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.2 1.3 5.6 95.2 92.3 -4.6 -2.5 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 -0.4 0.3 0.1 5.9 93.1 91.0 -4.8 -3.1 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.6 1.4 6.0 94.0 92.0 -4.4 -2.9 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 -1.4 0.9 -1.3 5.4 93.0 90.0 -5.2 -3.8 -2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 0.3 2.6 1.7 6.0 93.9 91.5 -4.7 -3.0 -0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -1.1 -0.1 0.2 6.0 91.0 90.6 -5.5 -3.4 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 -2.6 -1.1 -2.7 5.6 90.4 88.0 -7.2 -5.5 -4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 0.9 1.5 1.9 5.6 93.5 91.7 -4.8 -3.1 -0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------