***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 29.7 29.4 46.0 101.6 56.7 53.9 18.5 25.7 37.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 27.6 30.4 43.4 113.9 63.4 60.3 18.8 24.0 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 39.3 38.7 44.0 97.5 54.4 51.7 29.1 35.4 45.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 49.9 48.8 53.9 103.9 58.3 55.7 35.5 47.2 53.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 48.0 42.9 49.0 94.0 48.6 48.6 35.6 44.7 49.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 37.3 34.3 48.6 100.0 53.0 51.8 28.6 33.8 44.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 33.1 28.8 43.3 116.3 64.0 60.9 19.3 22.3 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 72.0 74.3 60.5 105.8 57.6 54.4 54.8 68.4 79.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 35.9 31.8 47.7 90.4 46.9 45.8 24.4 32.4 39.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 42.5 38.0 52.5 93.1 47.4 46.3 31.3 38.1 54.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 38.3 33.0 47.6 92.7 47.1 47.0 26.6 35.2 45.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 43.9 44.7 53.9 105.7 57.9 55.5 28.5 39.6 50.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 45.9 42.2 50.1 96.2 50.0 49.2 30.8 42.2 60.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 48.9 43.8 52.1 91.7 49.1 45.9 36.6 44.0 60.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 31.1 34.2 55.6 116.1 68.3 62.3 19.1 24.3 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 34.9 31.4 48.8 97.5 52.1 50.6 25.9 30.6 52.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 28.4 33.9 44.3 120.9 66.0 63.1 20.7 24.6 33.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 42.2 35.9 56.0 93.9 47.6 46.0 29.3 38.4 53.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 32.5 34.3 43.9 109.7 61.2 58.5 25.2 30.6 37.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 48.2 48.7 86.8 113.8 64.6 58.0 33.1 44.2 50.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 38.3 33.7 46.2 92.2 49.8 47.9 26.6 33.8 42.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 37.2 34.6 46.8 119.8 65.9 63.1 21.3 29.0 34.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 32.9 32.3 45.5 102.6 56.5 54.7 23.7 31.9 33.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 51.4 45.4 48.8 90.2 47.3 45.0 33.1 48.3 57.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 39.6 39.2 52.0 99.2 52.6 52.2 27.5 36.9 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 36.1 39.2 58.5 114.1 64.2 61.1 30.1 34.4 39.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 32.7 30.8 48.7 102.4 55.7 54.0 20.7 29.0 42.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 33.2 32.1 51.6 106.7 60.9 57.1 23.0 27.8 35.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 76.0 72.5 64.3 99.3 52.5 48.9 55.2 70.2 76.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 28.2 29.2 44.0 111.0 62.5 58.9 18.2 23.4 31.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------