***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.8 10.6 89.6 56.0 47.2 2.6 6.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.7 5.8 10.4 103.6 63.6 51.6 1.1 3.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.5 4.9 10.2 86.0 53.6 46.6 2.8 4.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 5.7 10.5 81.9 52.1 45.1 3.8 5.7 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.9 5.4 10.4 79.6 51.0 44.4 3.2 5.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.2 5.9 10.2 80.2 49.1 45.8 2.2 5.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.9 6.8 10.6 108.6 65.7 51.8 1.8 3.3 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.5 15.0 12.3 84.8 54.3 46.4 9.2 13.2 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.6 11.0 78.7 50.0 44.2 2.4 4.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.9 12.0 81.4 50.5 45.1 3.3 4.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.2 4.5 10.5 82.0 52.3 45.9 2.2 4.2 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.5 9.7 10.8 84.5 55.5 46.6 2.7 4.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.8 8.5 10.7 80.1 50.8 44.9 3.8 8.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.3 12.3 81.6 50.4 45.3 3.7 7.3 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.0 10.6 89.0 57.1 48.1 0.7 2.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.0 10.0 79.1 51.2 45.0 3.3 6.9 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.8 7.4 10.4 108.0 65.6 52.5 1.4 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.2 13.0 82.4 50.0 45.0 4.0 7.2 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.9 10.1 96.5 59.6 50.0 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.7 11.2 16.8 85.7 55.2 45.9 4.4 10.5 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.3 10.3 78.8 49.4 44.0 2.2 4.7 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.8 7.3 10.5 101.2 62.7 51.7 1.1 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.6 10.1 86.5 54.4 47.0 2.4 4.4 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.4 5.8 11.7 81.5 50.2 45.1 4.7 5.8 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.1 11.2 84.1 51.5 45.3 1.9 4.8 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.0 11.3 85.7 53.8 46.1 3.3 9.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.4 11.3 90.8 55.1 47.2 2.3 4.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.3 3.2 9.9 81.5 52.6 45.9 1.6 2.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 14.6 14.2 83.4 51.9 44.9 7.6 14.3 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.9 5.8 10.6 101.2 62.1 50.5 2.1 4.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------