***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.0 11.2 99.1 60.6 50.4 0.7 4.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.0 7.9 11.3 119.2 68.4 57.1 1.2 3.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.7 11.2 11.7 105.3 63.8 51.9 0.6 7.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 14.4 17.5 14.9 113.5 65.0 55.3 5.9 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.5 17.1 13.0 101.9 60.8 53.3 3.4 11.2 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.1 8.8 12.2 97.9 59.0 53.0 4.5 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.7 5.9 11.0 118.4 67.6 56.5 0.6 2.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 13.5 22.9 13.8 99.1 59.8 52.3 12.4 21.6 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.0 12.9 97.2 56.4 50.9 1.5 9.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.3 13.4 95.9 56.5 50.6 4.9 11.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.5 12.1 96.0 57.6 51.8 1.8 11.0 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.6 12.3 97.8 60.7 52.9 4.6 13.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.3 12.9 12.3 97.2 58.3 52.9 4.4 10.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.5 16.4 13.8 100.4 61.2 51.1 3.7 13.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.9 12.9 16.2 124.9 69.7 55.4 1.5 8.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.9 11.8 95.4 57.5 52.4 1.7 7.7 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.2 5.8 11.0 122.3 69.4 58.1 1.1 3.2 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.7 13.4 91.3 53.0 48.1 4.2 8.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.4 11.6 117.9 68.9 56.6 1.8 5.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.1 18.6 102.7 58.7 52.2 5.4 7.4 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.8 12.1 97.3 57.7 50.5 1.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.1 12.0 126.2 70.4 59.2 2.4 4.9 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.8 11.9 12.3 113.8 67.7 54.9 2.1 8.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.1 13.3 12.6 95.9 56.3 49.4 5.4 9.7 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 8.9 12.9 99.1 60.0 51.0 1.1 6.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.9 13.8 109.3 64.5 56.4 2.7 6.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.1 11.6 97.8 59.8 50.1 0.6 5.1 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.9 13.4 14.3 113.0 64.8 54.6 1.6 7.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.1 21.1 14.5 92.4 54.0 48.1 10.1 18.3 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.7 7.7 11.4 114.7 67.7 55.4 1.6 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------