***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.9 12.0 118.1 66.7 57.8 0.6 4.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.6 8.1 9.9 112.2 66.6 57.7 0.8 3.3 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.1 10.0 10.4 102.4 63.1 54.9 1.9 6.7 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 13.4 14.8 16.4 143.4 73.5 66.4 3.9 6.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.2 12.4 14.0 117.8 67.3 59.5 3.0 9.0 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 9.6 10.5 15.1 140.1 71.5 63.9 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.7 8.9 10.2 117.9 68.1 58.3 1.9 4.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 11.9 14.0 14.7 116.8 66.9 58.8 6.0 10.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.6 12.6 106.5 64.3 55.4 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.3 11.7 13.4 108.2 63.5 56.0 3.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.0 13.4 112.2 66.3 56.7 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.0 7.7 14.6 126.7 70.4 61.3 1.9 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.3 14.9 126.9 67.8 60.7 4.4 7.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.6 11.9 94.0 56.2 52.6 6.0 8.9 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 9.9 11.8 16.3 161.2 75.5 67.9 0.5 3.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 9.4 10.8 15.1 133.7 70.6 63.4 3.7 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.8 10.2 116.7 69.2 58.1 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.4 13.5 103.3 61.8 54.8 3.3 5.9 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.9 8.2 10.3 110.9 64.7 58.0 1.4 5.4 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.8 18.2 105.5 60.9 56.3 3.2 5.3 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.4 12.1 107.5 65.2 56.0 3.3 5.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.1 10.7 115.6 66.6 58.3 2.2 6.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.1 9.7 10.9 105.7 62.7 57.3 0.8 5.1 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.4 12.0 98.2 60.4 54.0 4.5 5.6 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 9.4 10.0 14.7 125.8 66.8 60.4 3.6 4.8 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 10.1 10.1 16.2 141.8 71.3 65.5 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.1 13.3 124.2 67.3 59.5 2.4 6.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 9.8 12.4 16.7 157.8 75.8 69.0 0.9 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.4 12.3 14.3 100.2 59.4 53.7 5.7 9.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.9 10.2 113.1 66.5 57.6 1.4 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------