***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 3.0 7.2 12.2 101.8 59.3 54.3 0.4 1.7 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 3.2 5.2 11.8 120.8 65.8 60.1 1.0 2.7 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.4 4.3 11.7 97.8 56.4 52.5 1.3 2.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 9.3 7.2 12.2 83.6 52.1 48.6 6.2 7.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.9 10.9 11.5 80.6 49.1 45.8 4.5 10.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 8.7 8.2 11.0 87.6 51.9 49.7 3.1 7.5 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 4.2 5.0 11.6 120.9 66.0 60.2 1.6 3.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 17.5 23.7 19.6 121.8 64.0 57.6 8.7 15.5 24.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.2 5.8 11.2 81.9 49.5 46.5 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.0 8.3 13.7 89.5 51.7 48.0 5.5 8.2 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.4 11.6 82.9 50.1 46.4 6.2 9.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 6.7 8.1 16.2 114.8 61.8 56.8 1.2 5.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.0 8.5 12.2 85.3 48.7 47.7 3.3 9.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.6 4.9 14.1 91.8 52.1 46.1 3.0 4.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 5.6 6.0 12.6 96.2 59.9 55.9 0.8 4.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 9.3 8.6 11.9 86.6 51.3 48.6 1.4 8.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 3.3 6.0 12.7 136.7 71.1 64.1 0.9 2.9 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.0 16.1 99.0 55.1 50.1 3.6 7.9 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 2.7 7.1 11.9 114.2 63.8 57.6 0.7 1.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 12.4 14.0 33.2 158.1 74.5 66.8 3.1 6.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 7.3 5.5 11.8 87.4 52.5 49.8 2.9 5.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 3.6 6.2 13.6 137.3 72.2 63.8 0.5 3.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 3.1 3.0 12.3 105.7 59.3 53.5 0.8 2.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.8 7.3 12.6 87.0 51.1 46.4 4.6 7.3 11.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 8.8 7.5 13.2 91.5 54.7 51.1 1.3 6.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 10.6 11.3 17.2 122.5 64.1 60.3 3.5 9.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 5.4 6.6 12.5 99.8 58.4 53.8 1.3 4.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 7.3 6.4 10.7 82.2 53.8 49.4 0.9 5.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.4 21.3 120.4 62.8 55.9 7.4 14.9 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 3.3 4.6 11.8 115.5 62.5 58.4 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------