***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 8.2 7.9 7.2 1.7 70.2 68.4 4.5 5.6 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.2 6.8 1.2 63.5 61.9 3.5 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 8.3 6.4 7.4 1.5 65.1 64.8 4.9 6.2 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.0 0.7 3.7 0.9 59.0 59.1 -1.6 -0.6 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 7.9 8.1 5.9 1.8 70.1 68.3 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 7.2 8.1 5.2 2.4 80.5 76.0 3.7 5.2 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 7.1 6.2 7.1 1.5 67.5 65.9 2.9 5.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.4 -1.1 4.5 1.2 64.5 63.5 -2.8 -1.7 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 8.2 8.4 6.5 1.6 68.5 66.6 5.0 6.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.5 7.3 5.3 1.3 64.1 63.2 4.9 5.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 8.1 8.3 6.1 1.9 71.6 69.3 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 7.5 7.8 5.6 1.7 71.1 68.9 4.6 6.0 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 8.3 8.7 6.1 2.4 77.1 75.2 4.9 6.4 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 7.0 7.6 6.3 1.0 59.1 59.4 5.1 6.3 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.9 4.9 1.1 61.3 61.4 4.5 5.8 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 8.8 9.5 6.0 2.3 76.5 73.6 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.8 6.6 1.0 61.1 60.7 3.0 4.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.7 5.0 1.1 61.9 61.9 4.0 4.8 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.3 6.8 1.1 61.8 60.7 3.7 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 2.4 3.8 3.1 1.1 64.2 63.4 0.9 2.0 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 8.0 8.7 7.2 1.7 69.7 67.1 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.2 6.4 0.7 56.6 57.2 3.4 5.1 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.6 7.0 1.1 61.3 60.4 3.7 5.6 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 7.0 7.4 6.4 1.2 62.5 61.9 5.0 6.4 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.1 5.8 1.7 69.6 67.9 3.4 5.3 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 8.0 8.6 5.2 2.2 78.8 75.6 4.5 5.9 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 7.5 8.1 6.8 1.9 73.1 70.4 4.4 5.6 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.0 7.4 4.4 1.1 61.0 60.8 4.5 6.4 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 2.8 4.0 4.4 1.2 63.3 63.0 0.6 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 7.1 6.2 7.0 1.4 65.4 64.3 3.5 5.3 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------