***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.5 8.0 0.8 52.3 56.2 4.5 7.1 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.4 8.0 0.7 51.4 55.5 3.2 5.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.6 6.7 8.5 0.8 52.9 55.8 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.0 1.1 5.5 1.0 52.2 57.3 -1.6 1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.7 6.7 1.1 52.9 57.4 4.7 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.0 5.6 1.5 57.6 60.4 3.7 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.0 7.9 0.6 51.5 55.2 2.7 4.8 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.9 -1.0 5.4 0.7 52.2 55.7 -3.7 -1.6 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.4 7.4 1.0 53.5 57.1 5.4 6.7 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.0 6.2 0.8 52.7 55.6 5.4 6.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.4 6.7 1.1 54.2 58.1 5.6 7.1 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.4 6.4 1.1 53.7 58.5 4.6 7.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.5 7.7 6.0 1.3 56.4 60.2 5.1 7.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.8 7.4 0.7 52.9 54.6 4.5 7.1 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.8 6.1 1.0 51.9 57.1 4.2 5.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.4 6.4 1.3 55.3 59.5 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.2 4.8 7.8 0.6 50.6 54.8 2.7 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.8 6.1 0.6 51.8 54.3 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.1 8.2 0.8 52.1 55.6 3.0 5.9 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.5 3.6 3.4 0.3 50.5 52.8 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.8 8.0 0.9 53.1 56.6 5.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.6 7.9 0.6 50.6 54.7 3.0 5.5 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.9 8.5 0.8 53.6 55.6 3.3 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.6 7.4 0.7 52.8 55.0 4.7 7.0 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.3 6.4 0.9 51.8 56.8 4.0 5.2 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.2 5.7 1.3 59.4 60.9 5.4 6.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.2 7.4 0.8 52.5 56.3 4.3 5.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.8 5.8 5.9 1.1 53.1 57.7 4.8 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.7 3.9 5.2 0.5 51.0 53.4 0.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.4 8.0 0.7 52.7 55.7 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------