***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.7 3.2 6.3 0.3 49.2 50.6 2.3 3.3 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.3 6.4 0.3 48.6 50.4 2.4 3.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.4 3.8 6.8 0.3 49.4 51.0 2.8 4.0 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.5 -1.3 3.1 -0.3 46.9 47.6 -3.2 -0.8 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.1 4.8 0.3 51.1 51.3 2.7 4.0 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.1 4.1 0.9 57.5 55.8 2.7 5.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.1 2.9 6.5 0.4 50.0 51.4 2.1 2.9 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -1.7 4.1 0.3 51.6 51.9 -4.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.6 4.3 5.6 0.4 51.3 52.0 2.7 4.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.0 4.8 0.3 52.0 51.9 3.2 4.9 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.7 5.0 0.6 54.1 53.7 3.4 5.0 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.3 5.0 0.7 55.3 54.8 2.8 4.8 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.1 4.8 1.1 58.4 57.9 3.3 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.4 6.1 0.5 51.2 52.6 3.3 4.3 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.2 3.7 -0.3 46.3 47.4 3.1 4.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.8 4.9 0.8 55.8 55.4 3.5 5.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.0 6.3 0.2 48.4 50.2 2.3 3.2 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.6 4.9 0.5 51.2 52.6 2.8 4.6 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.0 6.6 0.3 48.6 50.4 2.2 3.6 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.6 1.8 2.6 0.3 50.8 51.8 0.6 1.7 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.0 6.1 0.2 49.9 51.0 2.6 4.1 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.2 3.5 6.3 0.1 46.5 49.2 2.6 3.9 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.2 3.9 6.9 0.4 50.0 51.4 2.4 3.9 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.5 6.0 0.5 50.7 52.5 3.1 4.5 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.0 3.0 4.5 0.0 47.6 49.4 2.2 3.8 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.0 4.5 1.0 58.1 57.5 3.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.1 3.4 5.7 0.3 48.6 50.9 2.6 3.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.1 3.5 -0.1 47.4 48.5 3.7 4.3 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.8 2.0 4.2 0.5 52.4 53.1 -0.9 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.3 2.6 6.4 0.3 48.5 50.7 2.1 3.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------