***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9.8 11.0 7.6 2.9 74.8 72.6 3.0 7.0 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 9.2 9.9 7.4 2.5 68.3 68.2 3.6 5.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 10.6 11.4 7.7 2.5 69.6 68.4 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 1.7 3.1 3.4 1.4 64.1 63.5 -0.3 1.2 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 9.6 10.1 5.9 2.4 71.1 69.4 4.7 7.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 8.6 9.3 5.5 3.3 77.9 75.1 4.1 6.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 9.2 10.1 7.7 2.8 72.3 71.5 2.6 5.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 0.3 0.8 4.4 1.6 64.5 63.7 -2.5 -1.5 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 10.8 11.2 6.7 2.3 69.5 67.8 5.6 8.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 9.6 9.3 5.2 1.6 64.4 63.1 5.2 8.2 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.3 6.4 2.6 72.1 70.1 4.8 8.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 9.5 9.5 5.7 2.4 70.9 69.4 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 10.3 10.7 6.7 3.4 77.2 75.0 4.7 7.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.8 6.1 1.3 60.9 59.8 5.6 8.3 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 9.7 9.7 5.5 2.3 70.3 69.4 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 10.4 10.6 6.3 3.2 76.2 73.9 4.9 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 8.7 9.0 7.1 2.2 67.8 67.1 3.6 5.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 7.4 7.6 4.5 1.2 59.1 59.2 4.4 6.9 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 9.7 9.7 7.4 2.3 67.0 66.5 3.7 6.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 4.3 4.7 3.1 1.5 61.7 61.9 1.8 3.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.7 7.4 2.5 70.0 69.0 4.9 7.9 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.5 6.8 1.8 64.0 63.3 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 10.0 9.7 7.3 2.1 66.3 64.9 4.6 6.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 10.6 9.5 6.3 1.5 61.7 61.5 5.6 8.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 8.8 9.8 6.2 2.6 73.9 71.6 4.2 5.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 9.5 10.1 5.7 3.2 78.6 76.7 4.6 6.3 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 9.9 10.8 7.2 3.0 76.2 73.6 3.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 10.5 10.2 4.6 1.9 67.0 66.0 5.0 8.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 4.4 5.5 4.1 1.3 61.0 60.2 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 9.4 10.5 7.5 2.7 70.9 70.0 3.5 6.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------