***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 6.2 7.4 6.8 2.9 78.3 75.0 1.1 2.2 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 5.9 5.5 5.4 1.2 67.0 62.8 1.4 2.6 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 7.2 8.4 6.5 2.2 73.2 69.1 2.6 4.1 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 -0.5 0.3 2.6 1.4 64.8 63.5 -3.6 -0.9 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 7.4 8.2 6.1 3.3 80.3 77.5 2.0 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 6.2 9.4 5.6 4.1 88.0 86.2 2.2 3.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 6.2 7.3 6.1 2.1 76.0 70.5 1.1 2.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 -0.2 0.3 4.1 2.1 72.2 70.5 -3.2 -2.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.8 6.4 2.7 76.4 73.5 3.1 4.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 7.3 7.9 5.0 2.3 72.0 70.3 3.1 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 7.7 8.6 6.4 3.1 78.5 76.1 2.4 4.2 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 7.9 8.5 5.2 2.7 77.1 74.8 3.1 4.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 7.9 8.7 6.9 3.7 82.5 80.4 2.5 4.2 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 46 54 100 7.8 7.5 5.4 1.5 65.1 63.8 3.1 5.2 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 4.3 5.0 4.2 1.2 61.2 61.2 2.6 4.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 8.2 9.1 6.4 3.8 83.4 81.1 2.3 4.2 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 5.8 5.3 5.0 1.0 66.5 61.7 1.2 3.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.2 4.6 2.3 70.4 70.2 2.5 3.4 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 4.0 5.2 5.2 1.1 63.2 60.6 1.9 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 3.4 3.7 3.2 2.4 74.4 72.6 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 7.5 8.7 7.3 3.0 79.2 75.5 2.6 4.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 4.8 4.8 4.6 0.5 58.9 56.6 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 4.5 5.3 5.2 1.1 62.2 60.2 2.1 3.8 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 7.7 7.3 6.0 2.1 68.1 68.0 2.9 5.5 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 6.4 7.4 6.2 3.1 80.4 77.3 1.7 2.9 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 7.3 8.1 5.1 3.2 83.1 80.9 2.9 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 7.1 8.0 7.0 3.4 81.9 79.8 1.5 2.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 5.3 5.5 3.6 1.4 63.1 62.5 2.4 4.8 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 3.9 3.7 4.3 2.5 72.1 71.9 0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.9 5.9 1.8 71.6 67.1 1.4 2.5 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------