***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 52.2 58.1 -1.9 -1.4 0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -1.8 -0.4 0.7 50.8 55.9 -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 0.6 0.0 -0.3 0.8 51.2 57.3 -0.7 -0.1 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -4.4 -5.1 -3.4 0.8 50.3 56.9 -7.3 -5.1 -4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 -1.6 -2.0 -2.6 1.1 53.3 58.8 -2.9 -2.1 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 -1.3 -1.9 -4.3 1.6 60.1 62.6 -3.7 -2.6 -1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -2.9 -1.8 -0.4 0.6 49.2 55.3 -2.4 -1.8 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -6.8 -6.6 -4.3 1.2 57.8 60.3 -9.2 -7.5 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 -0.5 -0.9 -2.1 1.1 53.4 58.7 -1.7 -1.0 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -0.8 -0.8 -3.6 1.1 56.0 59.3 -2.1 -1.3 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -1.0 -1.1 -3.2 1.4 57.3 60.5 -2.1 -1.5 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 -0.8 -2.5 -3.6 1.5 58.3 61.5 -3.5 -2.7 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 -0.1 -1.1 -3.7 1.5 59.9 62.1 -2.9 -1.7 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 -0.6 -1.0 -2.4 0.9 55.7 57.0 -1.9 -1.1 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -0.8 -2.3 0.9 49.6 57.8 -2.1 -0.8 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 0.8 -0.6 -3.6 1.4 58.1 61.1 -1.7 -1.0 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 -3.1 -1.7 -0.5 0.5 49.4 54.5 -2.6 -1.7 0.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -3.2 -3.4 -4.3 1.1 56.5 58.7 -4.5 -3.6 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -1.9 -0.5 0.7 51.2 56.3 -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -5.5 -5.7 -5.2 1.3 60.7 60.8 -8.2 -6.1 -5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -1.5 -1.0 1.0 52.1 58.0 -2.3 -1.6 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -3.6 -1.5 -0.7 0.6 52.6 55.0 -3.2 -1.7 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -2.1 -0.8 0.7 50.6 56.6 -3.3 -2.2 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 -1.0 -1.4 -2.7 0.9 53.3 57.2 -2.3 -1.5 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 -1.0 -1.0 -1.7 1.0 51.8 57.9 -2.6 -1.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 0.2 -1.0 -3.8 1.5 61.4 62.3 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -0.9 -1.2 -0.6 1.1 52.9 58.1 -2.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -1.9 -2.2 -3.1 0.9 50.6 57.6 -3.3 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -3.3 -3.1 -4.6 1.1 57.7 59.0 -6.3 -4.0 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 -0.7 -1.4 -0.4 0.8 50.9 56.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------