***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 2.7 3.6 1.7 4.7 89.6 85.8 -4.1 -0.6 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 1.1 2.2 0.9 3.7 84.5 80.2 -4.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 3.8 4.8 1.2 4.1 86.4 82.8 -1.5 0.3 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 -2.1 -0.5 -1.6 3.9 85.1 82.1 -6.5 -4.6 -3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 0.4 1.2 -0.4 4.4 87.4 84.5 -4.2 -1.8 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 -0.7 0.3 -2.3 4.9 92.5 88.9 -4.5 -3.1 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 1.0 2.3 1.0 3.8 84.7 80.5 -4.3 -0.9 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 -5.4 -4.1 -2.7 4.0 85.3 82.8 -8.8 -8.0 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 1.5 2.5 -0.6 4.1 86.1 83.6 -3.7 -0.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 0.7 1.5 -2.3 3.7 83.2 81.1 -4.1 -1.2 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 0.1 1.4 -1.2 4.3 87.9 84.5 -4.5 -1.6 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 -0.6 -0.1 -1.7 4.4 86.4 84.0 -5.1 -3.0 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 -0.3 0.5 -1.9 4.2 86.6 83.9 -4.1 -2.0 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 1.6 1.9 -1.9 2.8 75.6 73.9 -2.8 -0.8 0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 0.8 2.4 -0.2 4.2 92.5 86.5 -3.1 -2.0 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 1.1 1.9 -1.5 4.4 87.9 85.0 -3.3 -1.0 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 0.7 1.6 0.5 3.2 80.3 76.3 -4.6 -0.8 0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 -2.1 -1.7 -3.3 3.0 76.8 75.0 -5.2 -3.7 -2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 1.0 2.1 0.7 3.7 84.6 80.3 -4.2 -1.0 1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 -4.1 -3.7 -3.7 3.7 81.4 79.7 -8.9 -7.4 -5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 1.4 3.0 0.7 4.3 86.8 83.9 -3.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 0.6 1.5 0.2 3.0 78.9 75.4 -4.6 -1.5 0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 0.6 1.2 0.3 3.6 83.5 80.3 -4.0 -1.4 -0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 0.4 1.2 -1.6 3.1 78.7 76.5 -4.2 -1.8 -0.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 0.7 2.4 0.8 4.8 89.3 85.9 -4.2 -1.6 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 -0.2 0.7 -1.5 4.9 90.1 87.4 -3.6 -2.4 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 1.8 4.2 1.4 4.8 88.8 85.3 -5.1 -1.4 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 -0.3 1.0 -1.3 3.9 86.7 82.7 -5.2 -2.9 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 -1.2 -0.6 -3.7 3.4 80.0 77.7 -4.9 -3.8 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 2.0 3.0 1.2 4.1 87.0 82.5 -4.5 -0.8 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------