***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 -0.1 1.3 1.2 4.2 91.7 88.4 -5.5 -3.1 -0.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 2.7 78.1 75.7 -6.2 -3.0 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 1.4 2.2 0.6 3.6 83.9 82.2 -2.8 -1.5 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 -4.7 -4.3 -2.5 2.7 78.7 76.4 -8.7 -6.9 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 -0.7 0.8 0.0 4.3 89.6 87.0 -5.0 -2.7 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 -1.6 -0.2 -2.7 4.2 93.3 89.8 -6.7 -4.7 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 -0.6 0.8 0.2 3.1 82.9 79.7 -5.6 -2.8 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 -6.1 -4.5 -2.4 4.2 88.1 87.2 -9.9 -8.5 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 0.0 0.7 -1.4 3.2 79.9 77.9 -4.3 -1.9 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 -0.5 0.3 -2.3 3.6 81.7 80.8 -4.6 -2.7 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 -0.8 0.2 -1.4 3.6 83.6 81.7 -4.9 -2.6 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 -1.3 0.5 -1.4 4.4 90.6 88.1 -6.1 -3.8 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 -0.7 0.3 -1.9 3.6 85.2 82.2 -5.7 -3.3 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 0.1 0.2 -2.2 3.0 73.1 73.0 -4.4 -1.6 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 -2.0 -1.4 -2.5 1.7 63.1 65.0 -3.7 -2.3 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 0.1 1.1 -1.9 3.6 85.0 82.8 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 2.2 74.6 72.1 -5.0 -3.0 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 -2.9 -2.4 -2.7 3.6 80.2 79.5 -6.1 -4.0 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 -0.3 0.4 -0.6 2.6 76.5 74.2 -5.6 -2.4 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 -5.4 -2.3 -2.2 5.1 92.8 91.3 -10.1 -9.3 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 -0.4 0.4 0.4 3.9 85.1 83.2 -4.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 2.1 72.4 70.4 -5.9 -2.5 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 -1.0 -0.5 -1.0 2.6 74.6 73.1 -4.8 -2.6 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 -0.8 -0.4 -1.6 3.2 77.3 76.9 -5.0 -2.5 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 -0.3 1.5 1.0 4.6 92.6 90.0 -4.6 -2.6 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 -1.7 1.1 -1.2 4.6 95.0 90.4 -5.3 -3.9 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 0.7 2.0 1.5 4.8 94.9 90.9 -5.2 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 -2.2 -1.7 -2.9 2.1 69.2 68.6 -5.6 -4.1 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 -3.4 -1.7 -2.9 4.4 88.2 86.1 -7.6 -6.0 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 -0.6 0.4 0.3 3.2 82.7 80.1 -5.6 -2.7 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------