***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 50.4 112.9 61.9 58.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 34.9 31.0 49.4 121.2 68.0 63.5 18.8 24.0 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 40.3 42.7 49.6 109.4 59.0 56.6 29.1 35.4 45.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 50.5 48.7 51.4 104.3 57.6 54.3 35.5 47.2 53.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 49.3 46.9 52.2 102.8 54.7 53.2 35.6 44.7 49.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 38.3 34.7 54.4 103.4 54.5 52.9 28.6 33.8 44.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 33.6 31.6 50.0 123.9 71.2 64.1 19.3 22.3 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 72.4 69.9 57.2 99.3 52.8 51.0 54.8 68.4 79.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 37.3 34.4 52.4 101.8 57.0 52.3 24.4 32.4 39.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 43.5 40.1 56.1 99.6 52.6 50.7 31.3 38.1 54.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 38.8 35.3 49.5 98.9 51.1 49.9 26.6 35.2 45.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 44.6 43.4 50.3 99.0 53.8 50.6 28.5 39.6 50.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 47.4 42.3 53.6 102.3 54.5 52.7 30.8 42.2 60.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 48.7 50.9 57.7 105.9 57.6 55.6 36.6 44.0 60.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 32.3 25.0 46.8 100.6 55.5 52.4 19.1 24.3 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 36.4 34.3 50.7 101.8 55.9 52.0 25.9 30.6 52.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 39.1 44.6 50.0 128.0 75.5 67.0 20.7 24.6 33.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 43.3 45.0 62.9 102.0 55.5 52.7 29.3 38.4 53.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 32.7 36.4 49.3 116.7 64.7 61.4 25.2 30.6 37.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 48.5 48.1 78.2 105.4 60.4 56.4 33.1 44.2 50.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 40.3 36.5 50.3 104.3 56.0 53.4 26.6 33.8 42.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 37.7 37.5 51.1 124.8 71.3 65.1 21.3 29.0 34.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 33.3 32.6 50.8 110.9 61.0 58.8 23.7 31.9 33.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 51.9 51.9 55.9 103.0 56.6 53.2 33.1 48.3 57.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 40.0 46.9 55.9 110.1 63.4 57.8 27.5 36.9 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 37.1 37.4 54.1 103.7 60.0 54.2 30.1 34.4 39.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 33.8 40.7 55.1 114.3 64.5 59.8 20.7 29.0 42.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 34.6 31.4 48.2 100.7 56.2 51.9 23.0 27.8 35.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 76.0 73.8 69.4 103.8 58.0 54.1 55.2 70.2 76.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 28.5 30.7 49.4 118.4 65.0 61.5 18.2 23.4 31.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------