***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 12.4 123.0 64.4 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.7 6.3 12.0 121.3 65.8 53.6 1.1 3.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.7 11.9 12.3 121.5 67.0 54.1 2.8 4.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.8 12.2 119.3 67.0 54.9 3.8 5.7 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.7 12.1 117.5 66.4 55.8 3.2 5.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.8 12.1 106.2 62.8 54.7 2.2 5.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.8 6.9 12.1 122.3 66.4 53.1 1.8 3.3 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.3 19.1 12.7 105.9 61.6 54.8 9.2 13.2 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.4 10.9 12.4 117.9 67.1 55.8 2.4 4.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.6 12.4 12.8 109.7 64.1 54.8 3.3 4.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.2 9.9 11.2 109.0 63.1 54.7 2.2 4.2 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 7.5 10.9 11.1 107.1 60.9 54.7 2.7 4.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.7 11.7 109.2 61.1 54.7 3.8 8.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.2 14.6 14.3 118.8 68.9 55.6 3.7 7.3 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.2 7.1 11.6 120.4 71.4 54.2 0.7 2.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.7 11.2 109.0 61.9 54.5 3.3 6.9 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.8 7.9 11.7 121.5 68.8 54.1 1.4 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 11.5 14.7 111.7 64.3 54.2 4.0 7.2 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.9 6.2 12.1 120.7 65.9 53.9 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.4 14.3 17.8 111.4 64.6 55.0 4.4 10.5 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.1 12.2 120.9 67.5 54.6 2.2 4.7 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.2 9.0 11.8 118.9 66.7 54.4 1.1 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.8 12.5 119.6 65.5 54.1 2.4 4.4 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.3 12.8 13.6 116.0 66.4 54.7 4.7 5.8 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.1 9.2 13.4 122.2 68.2 54.1 1.9 4.8 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.9 11.7 107.2 61.1 54.5 3.3 9.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.9 13.3 122.2 65.8 53.5 2.3 4.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.4 9.6 11.3 114.2 66.4 54.4 1.6 2.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.3 20.2 16.5 114.2 64.7 54.6 7.6 14.3 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.0 6.2 12.1 121.5 64.5 53.2 2.1 4.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------