***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 12.2 109.5 62.0 54.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.0 6.2 12.5 116.3 66.2 57.8 1.2 3.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.4 12.2 106.8 62.8 53.7 0.6 7.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.8 16.3 13.4 107.5 62.3 55.3 5.9 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.7 17.3 13.2 103.0 61.4 53.4 3.4 11.2 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.2 9.6 15.5 110.6 67.7 57.0 4.5 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.9 4.8 12.3 115.0 66.1 57.3 0.6 2.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.0 15.2 97.5 60.6 52.4 12.4 21.6 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.3 13.1 99.9 57.2 51.9 1.5 9.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.9 15.5 14.4 97.0 58.4 51.0 4.9 11.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.7 12.7 98.6 60.8 52.3 1.8 11.0 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.7 13.2 98.4 61.1 53.3 4.6 13.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.7 14.4 106.4 65.0 56.2 4.4 10.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.1 16.4 14.6 105.9 62.2 53.7 3.7 13.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.1 12.5 12.6 105.0 64.6 55.5 1.5 8.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.6 13.3 104.2 63.5 55.2 1.7 7.7 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.7 5.6 12.5 115.9 67.0 57.3 1.1 3.2 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.2 12.7 16.1 98.0 59.6 51.2 4.2 8.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.7 9.5 12.4 113.3 65.1 56.9 1.8 5.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 13.4 21.6 104.4 63.0 54.9 5.4 7.4 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.8 12.3 101.5 57.7 51.8 1.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.4 13.0 115.8 66.4 58.3 2.4 4.9 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.5 12.6 108.1 64.4 54.8 2.1 8.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.0 13.7 14.1 100.7 59.2 51.7 5.4 9.7 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.0 7.8 13.5 107.3 58.5 54.1 1.1 6.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.8 14.7 107.8 64.1 57.8 2.7 6.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.7 10.7 13.1 108.7 61.8 54.4 0.6 5.1 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.5 13.3 13.2 107.1 62.9 55.7 1.6 7.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.4 24.9 18.1 99.6 60.4 52.6 10.1 18.3 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.5 7.2 12.3 114.7 65.6 57.0 1.6 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------