***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 16.8 170.5 83.8 67.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 14.4 19.9 15.7 173.8 86.4 70.3 0.8 3.3 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 10.7 13.2 15.7 157.2 82.0 65.8 1.9 6.7 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 13.8 17.3 17.2 160.4 77.7 67.4 3.9 6.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.0 15.0 17.0 146.0 77.4 65.2 3.0 9.0 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.8 10.7 17.9 141.8 74.7 63.9 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 7.7 19.6 16.1 178.6 87.2 70.4 1.9 4.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 15.9 19.5 18.5 137.6 77.6 64.1 6.0 10.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 9.7 11.9 17.1 141.7 78.7 64.2 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 11.8 14.6 18.3 138.4 77.5 64.5 3.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 10.7 11.6 16.2 139.6 74.8 63.9 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.7 11.0 16.4 137.0 75.9 62.9 1.9 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 10.8 11.1 17.6 142.4 73.8 63.6 4.4 7.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.5 17.6 18.0 144.0 76.9 66.1 6.0 8.9 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 9.4 13.0 16.1 161.6 77.8 67.0 0.5 3.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 9.3 11.3 16.6 143.3 75.3 64.0 3.7 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 11.3 19.2 15.7 174.2 84.7 70.7 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 12.1 15.3 20.3 139.7 78.9 65.3 3.3 5.9 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.9 19.2 15.4 165.9 83.2 69.0 1.4 5.4 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 9.0 15.0 25.1 147.6 82.3 66.8 3.2 5.3 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 9.8 13.0 16.4 151.4 80.3 63.7 3.3 5.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.5 19.2 16.0 168.7 82.3 70.0 2.2 6.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 10.6 14.9 15.5 153.8 78.4 67.0 0.8 5.1 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 12.3 15.6 17.7 141.2 78.3 64.3 4.5 5.6 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 10.1 16.8 18.7 167.3 84.3 67.3 3.6 4.8 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 10.0 11.6 18.1 148.2 74.1 64.5 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 11.8 16.8 18.5 171.6 84.6 67.8 2.4 6.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 9.3 11.8 16.2 153.2 74.6 65.9 0.9 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 15.3 19.0 22.1 141.0 79.3 66.1 5.7 9.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 9.8 15.7 15.9 173.2 86.3 69.7 1.4 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------