***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 9.1 66.7 43.9 41.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 3.5 2.9 9.2 83.4 50.7 49.5 1.0 2.7 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.6 1.5 9.5 68.3 43.0 41.9 1.3 2.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.0 6.2 8.7 54.5 34.8 35.0 6.2 7.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.4 5.5 9.9 62.0 35.1 37.1 4.5 10.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.9 3.4 8.9 60.8 33.9 35.3 3.1 7.5 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 4.5 4.3 9.5 88.6 55.3 52.1 1.6 3.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 9.7 10.8 65.1 36.8 37.8 8.7 15.5 24.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.0 9.8 62.2 36.7 37.3 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.2 10.6 64.0 36.7 37.0 5.5 8.2 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.0 7.2 9.3 61.3 36.8 36.9 6.2 9.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.3 1.7 9.6 63.8 36.8 38.0 1.2 5.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.6 3.3 9.8 62.4 33.1 36.8 3.3 9.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.8 4.0 10.8 66.7 38.3 38.9 3.0 4.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.1 0.9 6.5 43.6 35.1 32.6 0.8 4.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.5 3.6 9.6 63.3 38.8 38.0 1.4 8.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 3.4 5.2 10.2 105.3 64.2 57.9 0.9 2.9 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.5 3.9 11.8 67.3 36.4 37.7 3.6 7.9 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 3.0 1.7 9.4 78.3 47.5 46.7 0.7 1.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.4 13.7 66.8 36.2 38.5 3.1 6.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.1 4.2 9.4 61.9 39.8 38.5 2.9 5.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 3.8 5.0 10.2 100.3 59.3 53.9 0.5 3.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 3.5 1.4 10.1 74.7 46.5 44.2 0.8 2.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.8 5.3 10.5 65.6 37.2 38.3 4.6 7.3 11.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.5 2.5 10.3 64.4 38.2 38.6 1.3 6.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.1 6.0 9.7 62.6 37.4 37.0 3.5 9.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.6 3.7 10.2 70.5 42.1 41.7 1.3 4.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.8 1.2 7.6 50.0 35.3 33.8 0.9 5.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.7 7.9 12.8 68.5 36.4 37.8 7.4 14.9 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.5 1.9 9.1 76.8 46.7 46.3 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------