***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 6.3 1.9 72.2 71.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 7.5 6.7 5.9 1.6 68.1 67.3 3.5 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 8.3 8.6 6.6 1.9 72.1 71.4 4.9 6.2 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 1.4 1.9 4.4 1.8 71.5 70.3 -1.6 -0.6 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.2 5.2 1.8 72.1 71.0 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 7.0 7.3 3.7 1.6 72.8 70.2 3.7 5.2 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 7.0 6.2 5.6 1.4 67.3 66.0 2.9 5.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 -0.5 -0.5 4.2 1.7 72.3 70.4 -2.8 -1.7 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.3 9.1 6.0 1.9 72.6 71.1 5.0 6.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.4 5.0 1.8 73.1 70.9 4.9 5.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.5 5.1 1.8 72.7 71.4 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 7.6 7.8 4.7 1.7 72.0 70.2 4.6 6.0 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 8.1 8.0 4.3 1.5 72.8 69.5 4.9 6.4 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 9.0 9.5 6.1 1.8 73.1 70.3 5.1 6.3 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 7.8 8.1 4.7 1.7 71.7 69.6 4.5 5.8 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 8.5 8.6 4.6 1.7 72.7 70.7 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 6.9 6.1 5.4 1.3 64.0 64.4 3.0 4.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 7.4 8.3 4.6 1.7 73.9 70.7 4.0 4.8 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 7.5 7.2 6.3 1.7 69.2 68.5 3.7 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 3.8 4.5 2.4 1.4 71.5 68.9 0.9 2.0 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 8.0 8.8 6.3 1.9 72.8 71.3 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 5.8 7.2 5.9 1.5 65.4 65.8 3.4 5.1 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 7.7 7.9 6.6 1.8 70.6 69.5 3.7 5.6 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 8.6 9.3 5.9 1.8 73.4 71.0 5.0 6.4 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.2 4.9 1.8 72.3 71.0 3.4 5.3 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 7.7 7.3 3.8 1.4 72.0 68.6 4.5 5.9 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 7.3 8.1 5.5 1.7 72.4 71.0 4.4 5.6 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 8.5 9.2 4.8 1.8 72.0 70.1 4.5 6.4 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 4.1 4.4 3.7 1.6 73.5 70.8 0.6 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 7.1 6.6 6.2 1.7 69.7 69.1 3.5 5.3 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------