***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 7.3 1.0 55.4 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.5 7.0 0.8 54.5 54.4 3.2 5.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.0 7.6 1.0 54.9 55.6 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.5 5.6 1.1 59.2 57.1 -1.6 1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.4 6.2 1.0 56.4 56.9 4.7 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.6 4.4 0.7 53.8 54.8 3.7 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.2 6.8 0.8 54.2 54.5 2.7 4.8 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.8 0.1 5.0 0.8 55.3 55.2 -3.7 -1.6 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.7 6.9 1.0 54.9 56.2 5.4 6.7 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.4 5.8 0.9 54.5 55.6 5.4 6.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.5 6.0 1.0 57.8 56.7 5.6 7.1 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.8 5.7 0.8 57.0 55.9 4.6 7.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.6 7.6 5.1 0.8 55.1 55.4 5.1 7.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.9 6.8 0.8 53.0 55.0 4.5 7.1 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.8 5.7 1.0 61.8 57.5 4.2 5.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.4 5.6 0.9 56.8 56.2 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.9 4.9 6.5 0.6 52.0 53.6 2.7 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.9 5.3 0.8 52.6 54.6 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.2 7.3 0.9 54.7 54.8 3.0 5.9 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.7 2.8 0.4 51.8 52.8 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.9 7.3 1.0 56.3 56.0 5.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.7 6.9 0.6 52.0 53.5 3.0 5.5 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.1 7.6 0.9 54.3 55.3 3.3 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.7 6.7 0.9 53.2 55.2 4.7 7.0 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.7 5.8 0.9 54.7 55.9 4.0 5.2 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.2 4.7 0.6 55.1 54.4 5.4 6.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.6 6.4 0.9 54.1 55.5 4.3 5.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.1 5.8 1.1 59.4 57.2 4.8 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.1 4.3 0.7 51.8 54.1 0.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.5 7.2 0.9 55.8 54.8 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------