***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 0.0 6.7 3.2 81.0 74.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 9.1 10.7 6.3 2.9 74.5 71.4 3.6 5.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 10.5 12.3 6.9 3.2 80.3 74.0 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 3.6 4.6 5.0 3.2 79.9 74.7 -0.3 1.2 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 9.7 11.2 5.6 3.3 82.0 74.7 4.7 7.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 8.1 9.6 4.3 3.1 79.3 73.6 4.1 6.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 8.9 10.5 6.2 2.9 75.0 71.8 2.6 5.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 0.6 1.6 4.6 2.9 80.1 73.5 -2.5 -1.5 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 10.8 12.1 6.3 3.3 81.7 74.3 5.6 8.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 9.8 11.0 5.3 3.1 80.3 73.5 5.2 8.2 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 10.0 11.2 5.5 3.3 82.7 75.2 4.8 8.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 9.6 10.8 5.2 3.0 81.1 74.3 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 9.9 11.4 4.7 3.0 80.3 73.9 4.7 7.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 10.8 12.1 6.2 2.8 76.3 70.7 5.6 8.3 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 9.9 10.8 5.1 3.1 77.9 74.7 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 10.1 11.5 5.2 3.2 82.3 74.8 4.9 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 8.6 9.7 5.9 2.5 71.4 69.1 3.6 5.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 8.8 9.8 4.8 2.9 77.7 71.8 4.4 6.9 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 9.5 11.0 6.6 3.0 74.8 71.7 3.7 6.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 5.7 6.6 2.6 2.4 73.2 70.4 1.8 3.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 10.2 11.7 6.7 3.3 82.3 74.6 4.9 7.9 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 9.0 10.8 6.2 2.5 70.2 68.9 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 9.6 11.3 6.8 3.0 76.8 71.8 4.6 6.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 10.9 12.2 6.1 3.0 78.6 72.5 5.6 8.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 8.7 10.1 5.3 3.1 80.1 74.2 4.2 5.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 9.0 10.1 4.4 2.8 78.4 73.6 4.6 6.3 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 9.7 11.3 5.9 3.2 80.1 74.0 3.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 10.9 12.0 5.3 3.3 79.6 74.9 5.0 8.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 5.7 6.3 3.9 2.7 74.8 71.1 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 9.2 10.8 6.6 3.1 76.8 72.7 3.5 6.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------