***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 4.9 2.1 74.8 72.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 5.9 5.6 4.3 1.6 67.7 66.8 1.4 2.6 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 7.3 8.6 5.4 2.4 76.1 72.5 2.6 4.1 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 0.7 0.3 2.3 1.6 67.0 64.9 -3.6 -0.9 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 6.5 6.6 3.4 1.8 67.0 67.3 2.0 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 3.6 4.6 2.2 1.5 63.9 65.8 2.2 3.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.5 5.2 3.6 1.0 61.4 61.8 1.1 2.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -0.4 0.2 3.2 2.1 70.9 71.1 -3.2 -2.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 7.4 8.0 4.7 2.1 69.8 70.0 3.1 4.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.7 4.0 2.2 70.8 70.6 3.1 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 6.8 7.6 3.6 1.8 67.1 66.9 2.4 4.2 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.3 3.3 1.8 68.5 68.2 3.1 4.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 6.5 7.4 3.0 1.4 66.7 65.4 2.5 4.2 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 8.7 9.2 5.6 2.9 75.3 73.4 3.1 5.2 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 4.4 5.1 3.3 1.5 62.3 63.2 2.6 4.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 6.7 7.6 3.0 1.5 66.1 65.2 2.3 4.2 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 3.9 4.8 3.8 1.3 62.3 63.4 1.2 3.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 5.4 6.1 3.9 2.5 74.0 72.9 2.5 3.4 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.8 7.7 4.9 2.1 72.5 70.2 1.9 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 3.0 3.6 2.1 2.3 74.1 73.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 7.1 7.8 5.0 2.1 72.5 70.8 2.6 4.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 7.3 6.9 4.9 2.1 70.1 69.7 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 6.8 8.0 5.5 2.4 75.1 72.5 2.1 3.8 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 8.0 9.0 5.2 2.7 75.2 72.7 2.9 5.5 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.3 3.5 1.9 70.9 69.8 1.7 2.9 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 49 51 100 5.8 6.2 2.3 1.3 63.9 66.4 2.9 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 6.1 7.5 4.1 1.8 71.9 70.7 1.5 2.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 5.4 5.6 2.9 1.6 63.3 63.5 2.4 4.8 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 3.6 4.2 3.4 2.7 75.9 74.9 0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.7 4.7 1.9 70.5 69.4 1.4 2.5 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------