***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.4 24.1 39.8 86.6 45.2 43.0 18.6 25.2 36.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 28.6 22.2 36.7 92.4 48.7 46.5 18.0 23.2 32.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 40.7 32.8 36.3 80.7 41.9 39.5 27.3 35.0 45.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 34.2 35.5 38.2 74.3 33.8 33.8 35.2 44.6 50.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 33.2 37.5 41.1 80.8 38.3 37.7 35.5 45.3 52.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 22.4 27.2 35.2 74.1 27.4 31.5 29.8 34.2 45.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 27.0 22.3 37.7 96.2 50.1 48.6 20.2 22.3 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 47.0 52.8 39.5 71.9 27.9 31.7 56.2 68.9 81.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 38.4 27.6 41.3 81.0 39.6 37.9 22.4 32.4 41.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 30.4 31.8 42.3 78.5 34.1 35.7 31.6 38.9 53.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 25.4 27.4 37.8 76.7 32.8 34.6 27.5 35.5 45.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 22.1 24.5 35.5 72.0 27.4 31.4 27.6 36.3 48.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 25.1 29.2 39.7 77.7 29.6 34.1 30.0 40.3 59.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 35.8 37.4 45.0 82.4 38.4 39.5 32.8 45.9 54.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 16.9 16.3 30.3 64.7 27.2 30.0 18.5 24.6 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 22.1 25.3 37.4 76.5 31.4 34.0 25.9 31.6 51.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 17.8 27.7 37.3 98.1 53.8 49.3 19.6 26.1 34.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 27.8 29.7 45.3 79.8 34.3 36.6 29.1 38.3 54.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 33.1 29.4 36.3 88.7 46.6 44.3 24.7 29.9 37.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 26.1 27.7 51.2 72.0 27.7 32.3 30.4 42.7 52.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 26.6 29.3 40.3 82.4 41.4 39.4 25.2 34.6 43.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 30.5 27.7 38.8 97.5 54.6 49.1 20.8 27.4 34.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 33.4 25.6 36.5 83.4 41.8 41.1 21.7 29.8 35.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 37.6 33.3 41.8 80.4 36.7 37.8 32.6 48.8 57.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 40.1 35.1 47.1 89.4 44.6 44.0 32.7 36.7 45.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 20.4 23.1 34.8 68.2 24.9 28.5 29.6 33.4 43.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 34.8 27.2 44.7 91.6 47.4 45.5 21.5 29.0 42.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 18.2 21.3 32.7 68.9 28.3 31.1 23.5 26.6 35.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 49.0 54.3 47.8 78.3 32.8 35.7 54.4 66.9 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 28.7 22.5 36.5 88.4 45.2 44.2 17.2 23.5 31.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------