***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.0 6.0 8.0 65.1 43.5 37.8 3.5 6.6 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.5 3.4 7.3 70.2 45.7 39.9 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.9 3.3 7.7 66.9 44.7 37.5 2.1 5.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.5 5.7 9.8 75.6 46.7 38.5 4.2 5.8 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.8 6.1 9.8 75.8 46.2 40.0 3.7 6.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.4 3.6 8.7 69.8 44.2 38.2 2.5 5.6 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.6 7.2 70.4 47.7 40.7 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.2 9.4 10.1 72.8 44.7 40.0 6.5 10.2 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.0 4.0 10.1 75.8 46.7 40.3 2.4 4.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.8 5.2 10.6 75.7 45.8 40.5 3.8 5.9 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.4 9.2 74.6 47.0 39.9 2.6 4.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.4 8.9 72.8 44.9 40.2 3.0 5.9 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.1 8.4 9.4 73.4 45.1 39.6 4.7 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.0 10.4 74.5 45.0 40.1 4.8 6.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.4 3.7 8.9 74.7 51.3 37.5 1.1 3.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.9 9.0 73.1 45.9 39.2 3.2 5.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.7 7.5 75.2 48.6 42.4 1.2 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.8 6.9 11.4 77.5 46.9 41.1 3.4 7.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.4 7.3 69.0 45.3 38.9 1.5 4.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 7.8 13.9 73.6 46.7 40.7 5.0 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.3 9.3 72.8 46.0 39.9 2.0 4.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.4 7.9 75.2 50.2 41.7 1.4 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.2 3.2 7.7 68.9 45.0 38.4 2.6 5.1 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.9 5.9 9.9 74.7 45.1 40.2 5.0 6.2 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.6 9.8 70.5 46.4 38.8 2.7 4.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.5 8.5 8.8 69.5 43.8 38.4 4.7 9.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.5 8.6 66.4 44.4 38.2 3.1 5.1 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.4 3.1 9.0 74.7 48.5 37.9 1.8 3.4 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.6 13.1 12.3 77.8 46.7 41.4 7.7 15.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.4 7.2 66.3 45.5 38.3 1.4 5.2 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------